By John Richardson AFTER a very challenging first quarter, nobody wants to make further write-downs on the value of raw materials and finished-product inventories. But this is the risk for any polyethylene (PE) producer who believes the recent rallies in equity markets and oil prices are leading indicators for the strength of the real economy. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Why Asia may win and the US lose in post-virus petchems investment world
As always, these are my personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson IT IS A polyethylene (PE) world turned upside down which, in my view, will remain upside down. With oil prices set to stay around $30/bbl over the long term, the US ethane advantage is in my opinion pretty […]
Big declines in Chinese polyethylene imports, a global recession and a financial crisis
By John Richardson YOU MIGHT be hoping that sanity will be restored after the “most expensive speech history” – Donald Trump’s comments that have been unfairly or otherwise blamed for yesterday’s rout in global stock markets. But has the market really been oversold, mainly or entirely in response to a few ill-judged words from the […]
Global polyethylene demand in 2020 could fall by 3.3m tonnes, cost curve analysis turned on its head
By John Richardson NOTHING that’s happened over the last few days that should surprise anyone who has been following my blog over the last few years. What was obviously impossible to forecast was the timing and nature of the catalyst. As I wrote on Monday: This crisis has been a long time coming. The build-up […]
Global PVC demand could fall by 1.1m tonnes as coronavirus crisis becomes global
By John Richardson YOU CANNOT stimulate economic activity when factories and offices need to be shut down, airlines are forced to cancel thousands of flights and conference organisers are compelled to cancel events. This is the dilemma that central bankers face, raising major doubts over whether “buy on the dip” will continue to work in […]
China polyethylene imports could be 3m tonnes lower as economy seizes up
By John Richardson IT IS TIME for crisis planning, I am afraid, as a result of the World Health Organisation’s warning that the “window of opportunity” for preventing a global pandemic is narrowing. The risks have increased substantially over the last few days with major outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy and South Korea. A disease […]
Global polyethylene demand in 2020 at risk of 2.4m decline because of coronavirus
By John Richardson I AM a bit confused this morning following some excitement about the Chinese decision to allow polyethylene (PE) importers to apply for exemptions from the 25% additional tariffs on US high-density (HDPE) and linear-low density PE (LLDPE) that have been in place since August 2018. One of my contacts for instance sent […]
China 2020 polyethylene demand 4.1m tonnes lower on single-use plastics ban and coronavirus
By John Richardson CHINA was supposed to be the one polyethylene (PE) market we could all depend on during a period of unprecedented oversupply. This is no longer the case. As I discussed last week, 2019 could well have been another stellar year for the country’s demand growth with consumption of PE at some 33.9m […]
China’s bans on single-use plastics: The impact on polyethylene demand
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you. It has always been just a question of time before China took its plastic rubbish crisis very seriously, as I argued in an April 2019 blog post: It seems clear that plastics rubbish will become a major focus of the Chinese government, affecting all […]
Why the trade deal is much ado about almost nothing
These are, as always, my personal views and do not express the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson RELATIONSHIPS between the US and China reached a major low point in May 2018 when details of the full scale of US demands were leaked to the Chinese. They required China to abandon its economic growth […]