By John Richardson CHINA’S credit growth in 2014 would have to be higher than that of last year if GDP growth is going to hit 7.5%. But in February, as Reuters wrote in this article: “China’s total social financing, a broad measure of credit in the economy, increased by 938.7 billion Yuan ($US152.9bn) in February, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s 2014 GDP Growth Target
By John Richardson THE blog is scratching its head this morning as it tries to work out how China can have it both ways. Yesterday, Li Keqiang, China’s Premier, announced that the country’s 2014 GDP growth target would be 7.5%, whilst he also pledged to press ahead with economic reforms. But how can economic reforms […]
China: “Just When I Thought I Was Out….”
By John Richardson THE BLOG woke up this morning determined to write about something else, but, as Michael Corleone said in Godfather III, “just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in”. What stopped us writing about US propane prices and what this might mean for Chinese propane dehydrogenation-polypropylene (PP) start-ups this […]
China Markets And Commentators In Denial
By John Richardson SOME chemical market players remain in denial or have yet to grasp the real problem in China, as is the case with quite a few financial journalists. Here is why: A widely-held assumption is that we cannot read too much into the few sets of data that have been released so far […]
China And The Fed: Still Back To Front
By John Richardson THEY are still getting it the wrong way round. Both the Financial Times and The Economist, have said over the last few days that weaker prospects for emerging markets are mainly the result of Fed tapering. We continue to think that this might be partly because of the great “unknown, unknown” that […]
China’s Debts: Close Your Eyes, Hope For The Best
By John Richardson LACK of transparency is fine when any economy is booming. Think of Indonesia pre-1998 before the fall of Soeharto. No foreign or local investor really cared that much about where the suitcases of money were going because the price of corruption was well worth paying. Similarly in the US before 2008, most […]
Running Away From Complexity
By John Richardson TWO-and-half years ago, the blog was told of a struggling Shanghai shoe-repair shop owner who had mortgaged himself up to the hilt in order to buy three apartments. “He has taken the risk because he assumes that the government will never let property prices fall,” a sales and marketing manager from […]
China Polyolefns: Trying To See Through The Data
Source of picture: www.wrh.noaa.gov/hnx/newslet/sum…mber.htm By John Richardson Hope springs eternal when it comes to trying to fathom the direction of the polyolefin market in China. One particular hope rests on March import numbers from China Customs, due to be released later this month. The data might just give a pointer to the extent […]
China Chemicals Review And Outlook
Source of picture: www.destination360.com Dear Reader Please click here – ChinaChems2009AndOutlook.doc for my review of what happened in China last year and Q1 2010 and for some pointers for the rest of this year. All the best John Richardson
Speed Of China’s Growth Triggers New Official Warning
By John Richardson The chairman of China Construction Bank has spoken about the dangers created by China’s GDP (gross domestic product) expanding by more than 9.5% in 2010, which, according to many analysts, seems highly likely: GDP is estimated to have risen by 11-12% in Q1. “It (too-rapid growth) will mean more duplication of construction, […]
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