The views in this blog post are, as always, my personal views and do not reflect the views of ICIS. Thank you By John Richardson A VIEW often expressed is that if Joe Biden wins the US presidential election in November, relationships between the US and China will greatly improve. I believe, though, that the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s real GDP could have been negative in Q2: What this may mean for PP
By John Richardson CHINA’S official GDP growth of 3.2% for Q2, which was announced last week, may not reflect real levels of economic activity, according to Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, a non-profit research body. He goes as far as to say that the Chinese economy probably contracted […]
Iran and China new deal could hasten Belt & Road Initiative petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson ONCE AGAIN, please don’t say I didn’t tell you. A proposed new investment and security agreement between Iran and China is the kind of closer relationship I had expected back in September 2016 when I wrote: China’s demand for oil is forecast to grow from 6m bbl/day today to 13m bbl/day by […]
China’s long-term ambition for paraxylene self-sufficiency seems close to being realised
On Friday, I examined how China’s paraxylene (PX) net imports could fall to as little 8m tonnes in 2020 from last year’s 16m tonnes. This would have major negative implications for the big exporters to China such as South Korea, Japan and India. I believe this is the beginning of a long-term shift – the […]
Paraxylene demand collapses as higher China production threatens 6m tonne fall in imports
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you that a decline in stock markets would happen. The post-March rally in equities was never going to be sustainable because of the enormous size of the damage to the real economy. We may see rebounds, of course, as we did on Friday as extreme volatility is […]
Why the EU could become polyethylene self-sufficient in the post-pandemic world
By John Richardson ONE OF the many unknowns about the post-pandemic world is the extent to which the backlash against plastic rubbish will be revived. I certainly hope it is revived, otherwise, combined with climate change, our future looks pretty grim. How will the public – and thus those legislators who need to be elected […]
Polyethylene producers must avoid repeating the mistakes of Q1
By John Richardson AFTER a very challenging first quarter, nobody wants to make further write-downs on the value of raw materials and finished-product inventories. But this is the risk for any polyethylene (PE) producer who believes the recent rallies in equity markets and oil prices are leading indicators for the strength of the real economy. […]
China’s PP production growth could lead to big declines in 2020 imports
By John Richardson PLEASE DON’T say I didn’t warn you. China is rapidly moving towards polypropylene (PP) self-sufficiency. There is every chance that by around 2025 it will end up as a net exporter with self-sufficiency achieved in both homo -and co-polymer grades. Becoming self-reliant in co-polymers would fit with China’s strategic push up the […]
Further polyethylene rate cuts seem inevitable with no certainty on who will blink first
By John Richardson IT IS NOT just a razor-like focus on petrochemicals demand that will get you through the crisis. Also essential is an equally close focus on production in a world where all the old assumptions about winners and losers have been turned upside down. But, as with demand, monitoring and forecasting production has […]
Coronavirus and the way forward: Forecasting micro surges in petrochemicals demand
By John Richardson THE MONTH of May is normally a low season for toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) demand in Europe because of reduced consumption of goods such as sofas and beds filled with flexible foams made from TDI. Perhaps not this year. There are reports from our market editors of long queues outside some furniture stores […]