By John Richardson ONCE people in the developing world start buying food wrapped in plastic packaging, they rarely switch back to food wrapped in paper, executives in the polyolefins industry keep telling us. They thus talk about a “base load” of permanent new demand as urbanisation increases across Asia, which is often accompanied by higher […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China: One “Blink” And We Are Back To Normal
By John Richardson Temporary factors might be behind the weakness in China’s polyethylene (PE) market that has been highlighted by our colleagues at ICIS pricing. Last week, pricing in China was either flat or declined on bearish sentiment (see the above chart). One temporary factor could be the traditional post-Lunar New Years shortage of workers […]
China “Base Case” Indicates Another Good Year
By John Richardson LAST year was a tremendous year for polyethylene (PE) exporters to China, according to data provided by US-based International Trader Publications, the US-based trade data and analytics service. They conclude that China’s imports of high-density polyethylene (HPDE) and low-density PE (LDPE) posted strong gains. Volumes for 2013 were up 18% and 10%, respectively, versus […]
China In 2014: Some Predictions
By John Richardson IT was a year to remember, for the right reasons, for anybody who bet on a recovery in Chinese polyethylene (PE) demand. Back in May, it was all doom and gloom. But since May, thanks to a surge in the availability of credit, apparent demand (local production plus imports) has bounced […]
Credit Tightening The Key For China In 2014
By John Richardson WE have been on a magical mystery tour during the second of half 2013 in an effort to discover what has really driven the 14% year-on-year increase in polyethylene (PE) apparent demand in China in January-August – the latest data that is available to us. Apparent demand is imports plus domestic production. […]
China’s September Trade Data Shows Real Direction
By John Richardson EVIDENCE that decoupling might be a myth has grown with the release of China’s September export data. Exports to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region fell 9.8% by value in September 2013 compared with the same month in 2012. Part of the explanation for the decline is the “over-invoicing” fiddle […]
China, The November Plenum And De-Stocking
By John Richardson THE end of China’s Golden Week holidays, which ran from 1-7 October, has represented an opportunity for some polyolefins traders. “Stocks were low before the holidays, and, as a result, once business activity resumed in earnest on 10 October, we have seen a considerable uptick in buying from the converters,” said one […]
Construction Drives China 2013 PE Growth
By John Richardson THE blog has been banging its head against a brick wall for several months now in an an effort to fully explain why polyethylene (PE) apparent demand growth has been so strong during most of 2013. Interviews with well over 20 producers, traders, end-users and market analysts (to be honest, we have […]
China PE Demand Up By 13% On Environmental Concerns, Restocking
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand for polyethylene (PE) surged by 13% in January-June this year (red column) compared with the same months in 2011 (blue), according to data from Global Trade Information Services. This represents a further improvement from the 10% increase in PE demand in the January-May period of 2013. “This is all […]
Running Away From Complexity
By John Richardson TWO-and-half years ago, the blog was told of a struggling Shanghai shoe-repair shop owner who had mortgaged himself up to the hilt in order to buy three apartments. “He has taken the risk because he assumes that the government will never let property prices fall,” a sales and marketing manager from […]
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