By John Richardson SOMETIMES a bit of data is worth many thousands of words – and so my choice of chart for today. It shows that in one major petrochemical, polyethylene (PE), China’s imports in 2014 continued to hugely overshadow shipments to every other major importing region of the world (the chart above excludes Japan, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Versus The EU: What A Contrast
By John Richardson IT is worth comparing what is happening in China today with what is happening in the EU. First of all, in China we are seeing: A political leadership that has been honest enough to admit that China got it wrong in the past. This has led to a new economic and social […]
China: Counting The Cost Of Wrong Analysis
By John Richardson VERY few people listened when I warned in November 2013 that China’s economy was about to enter a “New Normal” as a result of the biggest about-turn in economic policy that China had seen for at least 20 years. A few more people took heed of a clear indication in January 2014 that this momentous, world-shaking […]
Asian Polyethylene: Inventory Losses Threaten Survival
By John Richardson HERE are some observations, from several discussions with market participants this week, about what is happening in China’s key polyethylene (PE) market: If the oil price stays at $40-50 a barrel then payment collection from local customers, who kept going into the market to buy resin when they thought the crude market […]
This Is No Way To Run Companies In The Future
By John Richardson WHEN the history of 2015 is eventually written, there will no doubt be some petrochemicals industry executives who will say, “I simply didn’t see this coming”. This will to some extent be disingenuous as for share price reasons it is better to stick with the consensus view even if you hold private […]
2014: The Rear View Mirror
By John Richardson MOST of my forecasts for 2014, which I made in this post on 30 December last year, look good in the rear view mirror. I was right about credit availability being the single biggest issue for the polyethylene (PE) industry in China – and, of course, all other manufacturing sectors. As the […]
The Emperor’s New Clothes: Time To Spot The Obvious
By John Richardson IF enough of the right kind of people say something enough times then everybody starts believing what they say, regardless of whether or not they have done the right kind of research. Part of this is down to a sense of insecurity – i.e. “why should I question what better-qualified people than […]
China Restructures The Global Petchems Business
By John Richardson This chart should truly take your breath away as it shows that: China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) exports fell from 2.5m tonnes in January-November 2013 to just over a million tonnes for the same period this year. That is a collapse of around 60%. Meanwhile, exports surged – again on the same […]
China: There Is Still Time Left To Fix Mistakes
By John Richardson WHEN something seems as if it is just too good to be true it usually – and this applies to China’s auto market. As I have long argued, growth had to moderate from the 138% increase in sales that we saw between 2008 and October of last year. It is just plain […]
Too Late For Iron Ore, But Not For Petrochemicals
By John Richardson YOU might be familiar with the phrase “putting all your eggs in one basket”. It is the kind of phrase that you learn at your mother’s knee, and yet CEOS seem to have forgotten what they were surely taught from a very early age. The chart below should take your breath away. It […]