By John Richardson THE blog is used to being told “you are too pessimistic on China”, and is used to ignoring such comments, because they miss the point about what we have long being trying to convey. We challenge anybody to read yesterday’s post and reach the conclusion that we are pessimistic. What is remarkable […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Deals With Demographics In The Right Way
CHINA’S approach to its challenging demographics are in complete contrast to the Russian approach, which we outlined yesterday. In the case of China, its strategy involves: Providing manufacturers with strong incentives to relocate from high labour cost coastal provinces to low labour cost inland provinces. These incentives include discounted land and paying all of a company’s […]
China Polyethylene: Fitting 11% Into 6%
By John Richardson ELEVEN per cent apparent demand growth in polyethylene (PE) in China will not go into estimates of real demand growth at no more than 6%. This is our concern based on the latest set of data on the market (see the above slide). As you can see: Apparent demand growth (imports minus […]
China: “The Dog Ate My Homework” Won’t Do
By John Richardson TWO Chinese plastic processing companies are in financial difficulties because they have used raw-material purchases for speculation, a polyolefins industry source told the blog. “The companies are in trouble because they resold their inventories in order to invest directly in real estate, or indirectly in real estate via the shadow-banking system. This […]
China’s Economic Transformation: Free Webinar
Last May’s China Transformation webinar with Paul Hodges attracted great interest. We are therefore holding s free follow-up webinar on Tuesday 9 September. As before, it will be run twice, to allow blog readers in different regions to attend. This ‘China Economic Transformation II’ webinar will cover these key areas: •The likely impact on global […]
China Going To Plan: Credit Up Just 4%
By John Richardson TOTAL social financing (TSF) in China increased by just 4% in H1 of this year over the same period in 2013, according to official government figures (TSF is the measure of total new credit issued in China, via both the official banks and the “shadow” banking system). This figure is of far […]
China Peak Manufacturing Season Disappoints
By John Richardson THE chemicals industry, because it supplies so many downstream manufacturing industries, is an excellent early indicator when something is going right or wrong with an economy. Take note, therefore, of the July Volume Proxy, which was published earlier this week by Paul Satchell, chemicals analyst with UK investment bank Cannacord Genuity (the […]
Germany Needs To Follow The Example Of Its Footballers
By John Richardson WHAT a fantastic World Cup and Germany were deserved winners. Their flair, dedication, organisation, attention to detail and team spirit were great to see. But in Gideon Rachman’s very thoughtful piece in Tuesday’s Financial Times, he highlights some of the points we’ve been making over Germany and its economy over the last […]
China’s Q2 GDP Number Is Irrelevant
By John Richardson CHINA is due to release its second-quarter GDP growth number today (Wednesday) and so the analytical frenzy is already well under way. For example, AFP writes in this article: “Chinese growth failed to accelerate in the second quarter despite government stimulus measures, an AFP survey predicts, with the world’s second-largest economy forecast […]
China: How Conventional Wisdom Becomes Conventional Wisdom
By John Richardson HOW does conventional wisdom – i.e. the opinion of the majority – become conventional wisdom? This is a subject that the blog pondered over the last few days as it wandered around Euro Disney. Unfortunately, Mickey, Donald and his pals weren’t able to give us an answer. The reason why we dwelled […]
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