By John Richardson IN All the noise, confusion and economic anxiety following last weekend’s very acrimonious G7 meeting in Canada, you might have failed to notice one very significant detail for the polymers industry. This was the refusal by the US and Japan to sign a plastics charter put forward by Canadian Prime Minister, Justin […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Petchems Markets To Become Entirely Regional As Trade Barriers Increase
By John Richardson WHEN Donald Trump held election rallies during 2016, the amount of anger directed at mainstream Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton was, as everyone knows, intense. She represented the kind of mainstream politician that many of those who voted for President Trump blamed for stagnating middle class income levels and the loss of […]
As Global Trade War Moves Closer, Impact On Petchems In 2018-2019
By John Richardson IT USED to be the case that one week was a long time in politics, but now, because of policy conducted via Twitter and other forms of social media, five minutes seems to be a long time in politics. The state of events can change by the time you’ve left your screen […]
China Innovation Success Versus Failure: Electric Vehicles As Case Study
By John Richardson WHAT is the best route to innovation? Pure capitalism with a minimum amount of state interference or state-led investment programmes? The answer is likely to of course vary sector by sector. In some industrial sectors, the capitalist approach will work and in others, heavy state involvement will be more effective. A hybrid […]
China Overlooked Lending Data Down 64% As Economic Slowdown Continues
By John Richardson FAR too little attention is still being paid to China’s lending data even though this has long been the key measure of whether its economy is accelerating or slowing down. In January 2014, lending in China started to slow down as China’s recently appointed president, Xi Jinping, exerted his authority. At that […]
Polyethylene Margins Face Collapse On Overcapacity
By John Richardson THE consensus view is that whilst global polyethylene (PE) margins have further to fall from their levels so far in 2018 (see the above chart), they will not get that much worse. It is thought that the PE downcycle will be brief and very shallow because of booming global demand for PE […]
US-China Trade Dispute: Pause For Breath Does Not Mean End In Sight
By John Richardson Confused? You might well be if you’ve read the news reports following the US-China trade meeting in Washington last week. The immediate threat of a trade war looks as if it has been averted. China’s top envoy at the trade talks, Liu He, said that both sides had agreed for the time […]
China Emerges As Winner In New Multipolar World
By John Richardson TODAY’S headline should be written on your petrochemicals company boardroom wall, in several inch-high capital letters, and should then be used as the basis for a deep discussion about the consequences of this outcome for your business. You should then build scenarios around how this would change investment strategies and trade flows. […]
Iran Nuclear Decision Further Threat To US Polyethylene Exports
By John Richardson DONALD TRUMP’S decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, combined with the increasing likelihood of a US-China trade war, risks pushing the US polyethylene (PE) industry out in the cold. The above chart illustrates the US industry’s already difficult position in 2017 compared with ten years earlier. In all three […]
Unavoidable US-China Trade War: Implications For Polyethylene
By John Richardson A US-CHINA trade war has become much more likely following the negotiations that took place in Beijing last week. A compromise might of course still be struck, but the signs are not good. If a trade war breaks out, China would perhaps follow through on its threat to impose 25% tariffs on […]
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