…global risks remain elevated and so beware of complacency By John Richardson THE conventional view is that China has stimulated its economy to perfection ahead of the important 19th National Party Congress which begins in Beijing on 18 October. The theory goes that President Xi Jinping has kept the lending spigot firmly open in order […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Hurricane Harvey: The Case For Major Negative Economic Consequences
By John Richardson THE most important thing here is the human cost. Thirty lives had already been lost as a result of Hurricane Harvey as I wrote this post. Let’s hope that if this number must rise, it doesn’t rise by many more. But at times like this chemicals and other companies have to of […]
US Trade Agenda Threatens 49% Of US Polyethylene Exports
By John Richardson WHICH President Trump will end up setting the final direction of policy? Will it be the President Trump who spoke off-script at a campaign-style rally in Phoenix, Arizona, this week or the President who a day later addressed military veterans in Reno, Nevada, in much more measured tones? Or will the ultimate […]
US Trade Policy Has So Far Bought China More Time…
…..But any number of outcomes remain possible, which underlines the fact that we live in a world of elevated political risk. Chemicals companies must, as a result, build multiple scenarios for future economic growth and trade flows. By John Richardson TIME was a commodity that China didn’t think it had very much of as recently […]
China-led Global Downturn Could Again Happen In September
By John Richardson WHEN the Americans and the Europeans come back from their summer holidays in September it seems quite possible that they will see history repeat itself. It was of course from September 2014 onwards that commodities prices started to decline from their all-time record highs, largely because of a belated understand that credit […]
China: Real Story On Lending Says Slowdown Still On The Way
By John Richardson THERE was a lot of unhelpful and distracting noise surrounding the release of China’s official year-on-year H1 GDP growth that came in at an unexpectedly strong 6.9%. Equally misleading was the pick-up in June total social financing (TSF). This was taken as an indication that China is backing away from its efforts […]
Income Stagnation And The Impact On The Global Economy
By John Richardson HAVE the post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) economic stimulus policies of the Western central banks worked? If your answer is yes, you might be heavily influenced by your economic circumstances. Those who are convinced that everything is working out just fine could include the small percentage of people at the summit of the […]
US Govt Policy, Weaker China Indicate Further Oil Price Decline
By John Richardson OIL markets have reached an important tipping point as the bulls and the bears try to exert decisive influence. There is resistance from the bulls which helps to explains why, after last week’s collapse in oil prices, crude bounced back last Friday and on Monday of this week. But the physical realities of the market […]
China’s OBOR Creates “Win, Win” Demographic Solutions…
…and in the process, it could radically reshape global geopolitics, economic growth patterns and chemicals trade flows By John Richardson THE above map, from this excellent FT Beyondbricks blog post by Paul Hodges and Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga, illustrates why demographics always drive economic growth. If you don’t follow and understand demographics, you won’t understand economics. […]
Tumbling Oil Prices: Implications For Asian Polyethylene
By John Richardson DON’T say that I didn’t warn you. Oil prices now look much more likely to hit my forecast of $35//bbl, or lower, by Q4. Such is the downward momentum right now in crude markets that it is perfectly possible that this price level will be breached well before then. As of Tuesday, […]