By John Richardson CHINA is set to introduce a carbon emissions trading scheme later this year for steel and aluminium,, with the chemicals and polymers sectors set to join at a later date. Next January, China is also set to introduce a new environmental tax that would represent an additional cost to its domestic chemicals […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Buoyant, Calm Financial Markets Fail to Reflect Growing Risks
By John Richardson THE Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) volatility index fell to its lowest level since 1993 on 8 May. But we knew then that the China economy was slowing down – and that very probably, the Trump administration would fail in its efforts to achieve meaningful tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Financial markets […]
US Economy Returns To Weak Growth On Demographics
By John Richardson THE US is a deeply politically divided country to the point where the divisions are having a profound effect on consumer confidence. As the New York Times writes: Among Republicans, the University of Michigan consumer expectations index was at 61.1 in October, the kind of reading typically reported in the depths of a […]
New Petchems Business Model Based On Trading Blocs
By John Richardson THE above chart should give every analyst who thinks low feedstock costs are by themselves guarantee of success in petrochemicals pause for thought: US net polyethylene (PE) exports in 2016 were 5,000 tonnes lower than in 2015, even though one would have expected exports to have been ramped-up last year. Increased exports would have helped […]
Oil Prices Could Fall By 50% On Demand As Well As Supply Realities
By John Richardson THE REAL crude-oil supply story is becoming more commonly understood – hence, the recent declines in pricing. As I discussed in early March, before oil prices started heading south again, supply has been long for a substantial length of time. It is just that speculators chose to view the data in a different way as they […]
“War of Words” On Global Trade To Continue
By John Richardson WE remain in almost entirely uncharted territory despite the confidence of US stock markets. Take as an example the communique released after this weekend’s G20 meeting where traditional language about the importance of open global markets was dropped in order to keep the US happy. The wording of this joint statement was […]
Oil Prices Could Fall On Stalling Of Trump Agenda
By John Richardson WHILST some Republicans claim that the House bill to replace the Affordable Care Act goes too far, others have called it “Obamacare lite”. And unless the Affordable Care Act is replaced, or at least modified, by the end of this year, then the rest of President Trump’s legislative programme for 2017 might […]
The Real Story Behind The Commodities Price Rebound
By John Richardson THE job of anybody involved in financial markets, whether equities or commodities, is to of course make money – whether by going long or short. What matters, therefore, is not whether an economic theory ultimately turn out to be true or false. All that matters is that the theory moves markets in […]
New ICIS Study To Measure The Trump Effect
THE global economic and political landscape is in a state of flux and we face levels of uncertainty not seen for decades, as the three scenarios I outline above indicate. Politics is dominating Boardroom debate around the globe. Will President Trump implement more of the game-changing policies touted in his campaign? Could 35% import tariffs propel us […]
China And US: Different Approach To Same Challenge Risks Only One Winner
By John Richardson WHAT do Xi Jinping and Donald Trump have in common? Both confront the challenge of income inequality. President Xi’s approach is centred on the One Belt, One Road initiative, which involves an attempt to create the world’s biggest free-trade zone involving more than 65 countries. Meanwhile, President Trump is moving in completely the opposite direction. President Xi hopes that: […]
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