By John Richardson WE are in entirely uncharted territory because the West looks as if it is about to abandon the economic and geopolitical policy consensus that has been in place since the Second World War. There is, for example, the collateral damage that might well result from the president-elect’s domestic stimulus policies – a […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Bricklaying In Australia And Oil Prices: Important Similarities
By John Richardson THE bricklayer came around to my house three years ago, quickly surveyed the extent of the job, drew a sharp breath, and said, “It’s going to cost you at least Aus$4,000.” And that was after a four-week wait to get a quote. How times have changed. Last week, the same bricklayer popped around […]
How Free Floating The Yuan Could Accelerate A Global Trade War
By John Richardson THERE is a 50% chance that the Yuan will become a freely trade currency in 2017 in response to the US signalling its willingness to start a global trade war, says Societe Generale. If Donald Trump pedals back on his rhetoric and/or Congress gets in the way of his plans and we avoid a trade […]
The World In 2020 – An Update On Our Forecasts In ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’
All of us would love to be able to see into the future. And five years after the publication of ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: How the Ageing of the Western BabyBoomers is Changing Demand Patterns, Again‘, it seems timely to review its 10 predictions about how the world will look in 2020: A […]
OPEC Cutbacks: The Case Against Any Major Impact
By John Richardson OPEC’s decision to cut production could well turn out to have no significant impact on the direction of oil markets in 2017 and beyond. I believe that everything still points to weaker, rather than stronger, crude prices, barring a major geopolitical crisis. We are very likely heading for is a global recession in […]
China: Planning For What Once Seemed Almost Impossible
By John Richardson FIVE years ago, the probability you would have attached to the third Scenario above – China’s polypropylene (PP) imports falling to just 300,000 tonnes – would no doubt have been close to zero. In 2011 the consensus view was that there was nothing wrong with the Chinese economy that a bit more economic stimulus […]
China Becomes Dominant Superpower: Implications For Petchems
By John Richardson CHINA can become the world’s No1 Superpower, replacing the US, if it can rise to challenges such as these: Asia needs US$8trn of investment in the decade to 2020 to deal with its infrastructure deficit. As countries with urban populations expand, demand for transport, logistics and utilities will place a major burden […]
Donald Trump: Three Scenarios For The Chemicals Industry
By John Richardson SO much for the pollsters, then, just like Brexit. His victory, like Brexit, is the result of the end of the Economic Supercylce. Hundreds of millions of blue-collar, or working class, and middle class people are mightily angry with the political elites because of diminished economic opportunities. The long-term implications we will have to […]
A Donald Trump Presidency: Scenarios For US Polyethylene
By John Richardson THE above chart shows much polyethylene (PE) we think the US will have to export by 2020, based on our latest Supply & Demand updates. This might well have changed due to delays in start-ups. Watch this space for further updates. But what about the ability of US PE producers to actually […]
Global Trade: What The New Dynamics Mean For Petchems
By John Richardson THE result of this year’s US presidential election may well be determined by one issue – trade – as yesterday’s first presidential debate perhaps indicated. These are incredibly dangerous times for the global economy, and with it, of course, the chemicals industry. It is not just in the US, but also in […]
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