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Asian Chemical Connections

Inventories And Price Recoveries

By John Richardson THE role of inventory management in European petrochemical price recoveries needs to be re-examined, given persistently weak underlying economic fundamentals. In Europe, as this ICIS Insight article from my colleague Mark Victory points out, benzene contract prices have risen by 40%, propylene contracts have increased by 20% and ethylene contract prices by 21 […]

The Changing Landscape For Manufacturers

  The New Normal involves three major transformations in the nature of consumer markets, which are: • The increasing size of the New Old 55+ age group in the West. • Too many young people struggling with higher unemployment. • Large number of people moving out of poverty in the developing world. These are the […]

A Palpable Sense Of Panic

By John Richardson THE blog has sought to add to the debate during the four years it has been operating by thinking around the big macro-economic issues, and constantly keeping in touch with our market contacts at “ground level” in the petrochemicals industry, in an attempt to assess where markets might be heading. We haven’t […]

Confidence Is Often Relative

By John Richardson CONFIDENCE can be very relative. So, compared with late Q4 last year when global cracker and derivatives markets ground to a virtual halt, perhaps it was inevitable that January would see some kind of rebound in the industry’s mood. Deep operating rate cuts in Northeast Asia have been a factor behind this […]

Seeing Through The Smokescreens

By John Richardson CHEMICALS traders and the financial community, quite obviously, benefit enormously from volatility. Thus we have seen certain chemicals markets being talked-up by the trading community on the basis that the post-Lunar New Year period will see a surge in demand. Equally, the job of the financial community at the moment is to […]

Forty Five Minutes On China

By John Richardson CHINA’S GDP (gross domestic product) growth could fall to only 6.6 percent this year compared with 9.2 percent in 2011, warned Patrick Chovanec, an economist at the Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing in this Reuters article. Even this very-low rate of growth for China will only be achieved […]

The Fragility Of the Recovery Story

By John Richardson A VERY illuminating discussion with a Shanghai-located sales and marketing manager for a major Asian polyolefin producer reveals how the post- Lunar New Year “recovery” story being sold by the investment community is on even more shaky ground than we at first thought. Three points worth highlighting, before we publish verbatim what he said, […]

Chems Trade Protectionism On The Rise

By John Richardson TRADE protectionism in chemicals is set to rise during 2012 as a result of a weaker global economy, warned a trade lawyer who specialises in the chemicals industry. “There was a 30-40% increase in the total number of anti-dumping cases in Europe in 2011 over the previous year, and I think this […]

Difficult Year For Naphth-based PE

By John Richardson THE first quarter of the 2012, and very probably the rest of the year, look likely to be very difficult for Asia’s naphtha-based polyethylene (PE) producers as a result of more competition from the Middle East in the vital China market. The other big negative factor looks likely to be Chinese demand […]

Investors Predict Strong Petchems Rebound

By John Richardson POLYETHYLENE (PE) inventory levels are thought to be so low at the converter end of the business in China that a case is being made for a strong recovery in demand and pricing post-Lunar New Year. A further factor behind the anticipated rebound are forecasts of further credit easing by the Chinese […]

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