By John Richardson MOST of the analysis on the tenth anniversary of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) focuses on the effects on Western economies and societies. Economic inequality has risen since 2008 resulting in the rise of populist politics, is a very common theme. But almost entirely overlooked is the huge effect that the GFC […]
Asian Chemical Connections
PE Margins Fall As Trade War Threatens Two Entirely Separate Trading Blocks
By John Richardson LET’S FIRST of all take a close look at what the above chart is telling us about the damage already done to polyethylene (PE) margins before considering what could happen next. US high-density PE (HDPE) margins are 47% lower in the year-to-date versus to 2017 and low-density (LDPE) margins are 45% lower. […]
The Three Essential Oil Price, Economic Growth Scenarios For Petchems
By John Richardson ALL the excitement over the positive impact of US tax cuts should be placed very firmly in this context from an early July Reuters article: US budget analysts generally look at the impact of tax changes over a ten-year period. The tax cuts approved at the end of 2017 were estimated to […]
China PP Imports To Halve By 2025 Or Turn Into Exports
By John Richardson CHINA IS accelerating its drive towards at the very least much greater PP self-sufficiency by 2025. There is also a credible second scenario where China becomes a significant exporter by that same year, most logically to the Asia and Pacific (A&P) region due to proximity and what will be stronger geopolitical and […]
Increasing Risks Of Financial Crisis By End-Year
A sign that the central bank “put option” has come to an end By John Richardson EVER since 2008 there has been been a fantastic “put option” which has made the fortunes of many financial and commodity market investors. This involved assuming that every time bad economic news emerged, central banks would ramp-up economic stimulus. […]
Six More Years Of America First: Implications For Global Petchems
By John Richardson DESPITE all the criticism surrounding President Trump’s handling of the Helsinki summit, 79% of Republican voters said that they approved of how he handled his meeting with President Putin, according to Axios/SurveyMonkey. The Wall Street Journal also reports that in 1992, 15 of the 20 most manufacturing intensive Congressional districts in America […]
Prepare For A More Regionalised, Fragmented Polymers World
By John Richardson THE above map global shows our base-case forecasts for global trade flows of HDPE, LLDPE and PP in 2025. It is the result of lots of hard work and smart thinking around feedstock costs, logistics costs and demand growth etc. and is a good start to your scenario planning process. The map […]
US-China Trade War To Accelerate As Restrictions On US Petchem Exports Increase
By John Richardson TAKE a broader view of US-China trading relationship and the picture looks very different from the straightforward, headline big US deficit, as James Kynge points out in this important article in the FT. It is the presence of US companies in China that also matters. The most recent data, which is for […]
China Tariffs On US Petchem Feedstocks To Reshape Global Trade And Investment
By John Richardson CHINA’S planned tariffs against US petrochemical feedstock exports threaten a major upheaval of global trade flows in the feedstocks. The tariffs could also strengthen petrochemicals feedstock trading relationships between China and its fellow Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) country members. The Middle East may in particular step into the breach to supply […]
US-China Trade War Heavily Focused On Energy, Petchems
By John Richardson Normally, the blog only publishes on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, but this week is an exceptional week because of the unfolding US-China trade war. So today I publish a post with more to follow tomorrow. YESTERDAY it became apparent that the US-China trade war includes a large number of energy, petchems, polymers […]