By John Richardson CONFUSED? If so, you are fully across what’s happening in the global polyethylene (PE) market. Anyone who isn’t confused is likely taking a vacation on Mars with no means of communicating with Planet Earth. The chart below is a case in point. What you can see from the data are actual US […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Calling all petchem C-suites: Key summary of China risks and opportunities
By John Richardson AS ALL THE CLAMOUR builds about inflation and rising energy costs – and absolutely, of course, these are major challenges which I shalll address in later posts – there’s a danger the petrochemicals industry will lose focus on charts such as the one above, courtesy of the pH Report. I am still […]
China HDPE: Final review of 2021 and a further outlook for this year
Following on from my final review of China’s polypropylene (PP) markets in 2021 , along with a further outlook for the rest of this year, see below the same for high-density polyethylene (HDPE). I will complete the picture with reviews and outlooks for linear-low density PE (LLDPE) and low-density PE (LDPE) next week. By John […]
China HDPE negative 2021 growth, declining imports underline need for new business model
By John Richardson Following on from my post on Wednesday, please study the quite remarkable chart below, and, if you are not making Common Prosperity the very centrepiece of your strategic planning process, ask yourself, “Why not?”. Then please, please change direction before it’s too late. What you can see are the ICIS estimates for […]
With Common Prosperity set to dominate 2022, here is some essential history
By John Richardson THERE IS ONLY one slight problem with the argument that developing world demand is behind the boom in petrochemicals demand over the last 20 years: the data. Sorry to begin the year on a rather sarcastic note, but this is unfortunately a drum I feel I need to keep banging to support […]
China 2021 polyethylene demand could be 1.9m tonnes lower than last year
By John Richardson WE NOW HAVE enough data to make some firm conclusions about what the Chinese polyethylene (PE) market will have looked like in 2021. We can also make some early estimates about the shape of the market in 2022. The slide below details what the ICIS apparent demand data for January-October 2021 (our […]
New China HDPE import scenarios for 2021-2031 in the context of Common Prosperity
By John Richardson IF YOU THINK that forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals demand has become complicated enough because of Common Prosperity, the new complexities around demand pale into insignificance compared with the tangle of fresh variables shaping local capacity growth. The above slide is just my back-of-the-envelope attempt to chart some of […]
China polypropylene demand growth continues to disappoint as new capacity uncertainties increase
By John Richardson CHINA’S POLYPROPYLENE (PP) demand will very likely still grow in 2021 despite what has been a disappointing year relative to expectations. My latest estimate is for consumption to grow by 3% over last year. This is based on China Customs net import data and our local production estimates for January-September 2021. As […]
Here is your guide to Asian and Global HDPE markets in Q4 this year and in 2022
By John Richardson THE COMING COLLAPSE of China, as I’ve discussed is before, is like commercially viable nuclear fusion and peak oil – perpetually 10 years away. But what seems evident to me is that over the next six to 18 months, as China transitions to what I believe will be a successful new and […]
China’s less commodity intensive future requires major petchem strategic rethink
By John Richardson THE THING about the collapse of China is that, like commercially viable nuclear fusion and peak oil, it is always ten years away from happening. In other words, I don’t think it will happen. But as the journalist and author Richard McGregor said in this Dan Snow history podcast on this year’s […]