By John Richardson NARENDRA Modi looks as if he will end up leading the BJP-coalition to victory in India. This has led to a surge in optimism that he can repeat the “economic miracle” he achieved in Gujarat at a nationwide level. We wish him every success, but, of course, politics is the art of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
India Can Be Plastic Fantastic
By John Richardson THE blog has recently heard India described as “very disappointing” by several overseas executives of major polyolefins producers. When pressed about what they meant, they told us: Economic growth over the last few years has been much weaker than expected. This has been the result of infrastructure constraints and lack of foreign […]
India Risks Squandering Demographic Dividend
By John Richardson INDIA is at risk of squandering its demographic dividend, warned investment bank Espirito Santo when it wrote in a September 2013 note: If India continues its current path it will face a catastrophic shortage of jobs, creating a young and angry population, and with it conditions for social unrest and economic disaster. […]
India Gas Price Breakthrough
By John Richardson DEMOGRAPHICS can drive chemicals demand in the right direction, provided the correct government policies are in place. India’s demographics are much better than China’s, as this data from the CIA Factbook indicate. For instance, as of 2013 India’s median age was 26.7 years compared with 36.3 years in China. India’s birth rate […]
China and India: When Over-Investment Is A Good Thing
By John Richardson WHEN is over-investment a good thing? This was another question the blog was left pondering after a good conversation with a Beijing-based training delegate during ICIS Training’s recent China Seminar in Bangkok. She made the point that China builds roads, bridges and railways, which ends up “seeding” or developing demand in less-developed […]
No Ethylene Margins Peak In 2016
By John Richardson FORECASTS of European capacity closures and project delays and cancellations have led some financial analysts to the conclusion that there will be a peak in ethylene margins from 2016 onwards. This will provide a few years of very strong returns for the global industry before the big wave of US capacity […]
The FOMC Decision And Tackling Leprosy
Ben Bernanke Please note that before reading what follows: We do not want to be seen as belittling or ignoring the enormous efforts of those chemicals companies individuals, including those in India, who already contributing to long-term, sustainable growth. We recognise their tremendous contribution […]
Indonesia: Sweat It Out!
Jakarta at night (source of picture: Wikimedia) By John Richardson THE blog first visited Indonesia in October 1997, shortly after the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis, and was amazed to think that only a few months earlier, the media was talking of the inevitable rise of Indonesia’s middle class, which was said to […]
Holding India’s Leaders To Account
Source: ICIS Consulting By John Richardson It has now become widely recognised that India is in serious trouble. The consensus has shifted over the […]
It Is Just Too Difficult
Smart bottles By John Richardson THERE is a growing concern amongst some polyolefin industry executives that, despite the economic problems first in China and now India, there is still a great deal of enthusiasm for adding new capacity, as we discuss in this ICIS Insight article. “Now that China has weakened, everybody has switched […]