By John Richardson ECONOMIC GROWTH for the sake of economic growth was for so many years the No1 priority in China. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that there is a legacy of major environmental problems. These include some 1.6m premature deaths a year from air pollution alone, according to an independent study in 2015. A […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China And US On Collision Course As Trade Tensions Build
By John Richardson Yesterday, President Trump threatened to impose penalties on China for alleged abuse of intellectual property right rules. Below is the context behind way claims of abuses are likely to increase in the future. This suggests that China and the US are on a collision course over trade, with major negative implications for […]
China’s 19th Party Congress: Stronger President Xi Good For Petchems Growth
By John Richardson I SEE three Scenarios for Chinese economic growth, and so of course petrochemicals demand growth, in 2018-2025. See below where I detail how these three Scenarios would affect growth in demand for polypropylene (PP). But first of all, let’s deal with the issue of the 19th National Party Congress meeting, which begins […]
How China’s OBOR Will Re-Order Global Petchems Value Chains
By John Richardson EVERY petrochemicals company needs to understand the above map and its implications for global trade flows over the next 20 years. Failure to understand and respond to what this map is telling you would be a very costly error. Let’s start with understanding what One Belt, One Road actually means: The One […]
China To Raise Ethylene Capacity By 71% In Major Self-Sufficiency Drive
By John Richardson CHINA could raise its ethylene capacity by as much as 71% and its propylene capacity by at least 21%, according to my latest analysis of a major new wave of naphtha, ethane and LPG crackers. The above chart is an update of the chart I first published back in June. In detail: […]
US Trade Policy Has So Far Bought China More Time…
…..But any number of outcomes remain possible, which underlines the fact that we live in a world of elevated political risk. Chemicals companies must, as a result, build multiple scenarios for future economic growth and trade flows. By John Richardson TIME was a commodity that China didn’t think it had very much of as recently […]
China Drives 58% Of Global PP Growth, So What’s Your Plan B?
By John Richardson THIS IS a great example of putting most of your eggs in one basket! Polypropylene (PP) shareholders are entitled to ask what Plan B is if China can no longer deliver as much as 58% of the total growth in global PP demand. This is what ICIS Consulting forecasts will be the […]
China’s Soil Pollution: The $1,000 Trillion Problem
By John Richardson THE ESTABLISHED approach to dealing with soil polluted by chemicals waste involves washing the soil and treating it with bacteria. These were the methods used ahead of the 2012 London Olympic Games, reports The Economist. The cost was £3,000 ($3,900) per cubic metre, reaching a total of £12.7m to decontaminate some 250 hectares. […]
Reliance On Any China Polymer Deficit Will Not Work
By John Richardson THE “last big man standing’, as polyethylene (PE) was described to me during my visit to Shanghai last week, is widely expected to remain in major deficit in China for the next decade at least. As PE is the foundation of the cracker business – i.e. it is the main reason […]
South Korea’s Demographic Challenges
By John Richardson THE blog has been long on South Korea ever since its first visit in 1997. Its economic achievements since the horrors of the Korean War are nothing short of amazing. Bereft of natural resources, all it has had to rely has been its intellectual capital and, wow, look at how it has […]
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