By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you. An important new IMF study confirms what I’ve been arguing for a long time: China has overtaken the US to become the biggest locomotive of global economic growth. In the five years between 2013 and 2028, China accounted for 28% of all global growth, behind the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s inland petrochemicals demand will never come anywhere close to coastal levels
By John Richardson ONE DIMENSIONAL analysis of China would have you believe that as per capita income growth steadily improves in China’s vast hinterland, its inland provinces, huge volumes of petrochemicals and polymers demand will be added. This analysis is built on the two decades-old government “Go West” campaign of huge investment in infrastructure aimed […]
The new China and the rise of the Millennials transform the petrochemicals business model
By John Richardson ANYONE who has anything to do with the petrochemicals industry or anything to do with the global economy, in other words all of us, needs to pay close attention to the above chart and what it is telling us. This once again demonstrates the enormous value of the ICIS Supply & Demand […]
China PE overstocking rises to more than 1m tonnes as exporters continue to flood the market
By John Richardson CHINA is heading for another good year of PE demand growth with estimates from several players of growth at around of 8%. This is in line with our forecast for 2019 growth of 7.7%. But this is clearly not a market growing at 13%, which is what our estimates of local production […]
US petrochemicals export exposure grows at the wrong time in history
As always, the views in this blog post are my own and do not reflect the views of ICIS. Thank you By John Richardson THE US economy is enjoying an unprecedented economic recovery. It has been expanding for the past 122 consecutive months, the longest period in history. But, in my opinion, this is largely […]
President Trump can only cause major economic damage by beating China, unless he has a time machine
The views in this blog, are, as always, my own personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson LORD SALISBURY, who served as British Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, understood it was impossible to turn back time to the American Civil of […]
As trade talks resume make sure your expectations are very low
By John Richardson DON’T BUILD your mind up over this week’s US/China trade talk as major breakthroughs seem very unlikely. One reason is that we have in effect entered the next presidential election season even though the primaries don’t begin until early next year. President Trump has nothing to gain and everything to lose on […]
Environmental credits separate polymer Winners and Losers as the world divides
By John Richardson THE WORLD is becoming a much more complex and fragmented place as the consensus about the benefits of open markets and the largely unrestricted movement of labour is challenged. There also seems to be a split between those individuals and governments that agree with the science supporting human-made climate change versus those […]
Trade War: 88m tonnes of lost polymers demand despite the boom in Asia ex-China
By John Richardson SURE, there are tremendous opportunities for petrochemicals and polymers companies in booming Southeast (SEA) Asia and South Asia as manufacturing chains relocate from China. Demographics are economic destiny. This is a process that has been taking place for at least ten years as Chinese labour costs rise on an ageing population whereas […]
Vietnam PE demand booms on trade war, but for how much longer?
By John Richardson GLOBAL manufacturing supply chains are adjusting to the US tariffs against China, accelerating a process that began a decade or so ago because of China’s ageing population versus more youthful populations elsewhere. Let’s use Vietnam as an example to first of all examine the longer term drift away from China. Since 2010, […]