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Asian Chemical Connections

China’s commodity stockpile gamble

Source of Picture: Australiannews.com In this article in the South China Morning Post (you can register for free for 14 days if you are not already a subscriber) Michael Pettis makes the argument that China is taking a big risk by stockpiling commodites such as iron ore, copper and oil. Inventory building is on the […]

Chemicals company H2 complacency?

Chemical companies as a whole displayed “dangerously complacent” views about second-half 2009 prospects when they released their Q2 results late last week, argues chemicals analyst Paul Satchell in his blog. “They believe that demand has bottomed. Although they can’t see the upturn yet they believe the worst is definitely behind us,” writes Satchell. “This blog […]

Futures, Recycling Behind China PE Mystery?

Picture: The China Daily “I’ve given up trying to read the polyolefin market in China. I just can’t figure out what’s going on,” said a senior source with a major North American producer late last week. “I keep returning to the fundamentals and cannot understand why prices have risen so steeply since mid-February.” Him and […]

China petchem imports soar on false confidence

They always say the best form of flattery is immitation and so thanks to my colleague Paul Hodges for this graph indicating a huge surge in China’s polyethylene imports – courtesy of data from Edwin Pang of Credit Suisse. I agree with Paul in the latest post on his blog, Chemicals & The Economy, that […]

Artificial price support about to disappear

Source of picture: gilesbowkett.blogspot.com The excellent daily energy and shipping report, The Schork Report said today that the bottom had “fallen out of the entire (energy) complex.” With the Bulls on the defensive, the authors believe that crude could retreat towards $60/bbl. Natural gas markets are so oversupplied that prices in the region of $2/mBTU […]

An Affair To Remember

Source:Amazon.com I remain perplexed by the direction of chemicals, oil and commodity markets over the last few months – and now I understand the reason why. It’s not about feedstock, it’s not about inventory levels or what end-use demand is really like, it’s all to do with affairs of the heart. Thanks again to my […]

Be very careful what you wish for…

Source of picture: The Nymex To continue the same theme of earlier this week, I agree with my fellow blogger Paul Hodges when he warns that OPEC’s price target for $75-80/bbl could nip the nascent economic recovery in the bud. As he quite rightly argues, inventory building ahead of further crude rises in 2007-08 occurred […]

History will surely repeat itself

The mood at the recent NPRA International Petrochemical Conference in San Antonio, Texas, was mixed, despite all the economic gloom. Some producers said they were still making money – especially those selling into manufacturing sectors benefiting from a rise in exports due to the weak dollar. What’s certain, of course, though is that things will […]

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