Source of picture: China Daily By John Richardson The famous investor, Jim Chanos, warned three years years ago that the West places an inordinate amount of trust in “nine guys in a room” (i.e. China’s Politburo Standing Committee) getting it right. Since last year’s leadership transition that trust now needs to be placed in just […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Govt Confirms Post-CNY Labour Shortages
The great news behind rising labour costs: Shan Dalin, pictured with his family, is a crane operator from Southwest China’s Guizhou province who has worked in eastern Zhejiang province for 10 years. In 2012, Shan’s monthly income rose to 2,800 yuan ($449) from lower than 2,000 yuan in 2008. [Photo/Xinhua] By John Richardson The […]
PTA Price Decline Reflects Realities
By John Richardson The end of the eight-week long bull-run in China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) pricing might well indicate a wider problem about to beset other petrochemicals: Reality undermining the positive sentiment of the early part of this year. “PTA prices surged by 10% from early November to early January, mainly led by a […]
Ponzi Scheme Economics
By John Richardson AN important study by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) underlines most of the views we put forward in our e-book, Boom Gloom & The New Normal. “The developed world’s Ponzi scheme is caused by record-high levels of public and private debt. And it is exacerbated by huge unfunded liabilities that will be […]
Beijing Smog Highlights Reform Agenda
Picture: HAP/Quirky China News/Rex Features By John Richardson THE toxic smog that enveloped Beijing over the weekend is another example of why China’s new leaders simply have to change the economic growth model. At its worst point on Saturday night, the level of harmful particulates in the air reached as much as 36 times […]
“You Can’t Turn Back The Demographic Tide”
By John Richardson Our argument ument that demographics drive demand is gaining greater traction. Demographic challenges apply both to developed markets, where populations are rapidly ageing, and to emerging markets such as China, which confronts ithe consequences of its disastrous one-child policy. The slide above shows rising life expectancy – just one of the […]
The Challenges For 2013
By John Richardson WE wish our readers a great festive season and wish them all the best for the New Year. We will take a break and resume the blog on 28 December. We really do wish we could be a great deal more optimistic, particularly at this time of year. 2012 has been a […]
China: 2013 Growth To Slow Again
By John Richardson A detailed study of some of China’s positive economic data for November adds a lot more weight to the point we made yesterday: The “recovery” is unlikely to last into 2013. November marked the first time in over a year that both the official China manufacturing PMI and the final HSBC/Markit Economics […]
South Korea’s Demographic Challenges
By John Richardson SOUTH Korea serves as another example of how demographics are reshaping Asian economic prospects. “By 2018, 14% of its population will be over 65, making it officially an ‘aged society.’ That is six years sooner than Japan and more than a century before France, according to the Samsung Economic Research Institute,” writes […]
Weak PE Margins Reflect Big Picture
By John Richardson BEFORE we look at last week’s political handover in China in more detail tomorrow, while on Friday we will return to our theme of Asian demographics, the above slide illustrates what the big picture has meant for the polyethylene (PE) industry. As you can see, variable-cost margins for Northeast Asian producers fell […]
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