By John Richardson POVERTY alleviation in low-income developing countries could be set back a decade by the pandemic, warns the IMF in a new study. Problems it highlights include the collapse of remittance payments from overseas, down by 18% year-on-year in Bangladesh in January-May, lockdowns that have left workers living on the margin unable to […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The pandemic and petrochemicals demand: a whole new approach is required
By John Richardson MONITORING demand has never been harder because of the pandemic. One of my colleagues on the ICIS Pricing team was, for example, last week told by one of his reliable contacts that polyethylene (PE) demand was good, bad or indifferent. It used to be that if you talked to the people you […]
China’s new five-year-plan to accelerate petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson IT IS ONCE again a critical moment in forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals industry and with it, of course, the direction of the global industry, as the global industry so heavily depends on China. If China’s deficits were to entirely disappear, what would many of us then do for a living? […]
Vaccine hopes versus reality and the implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson THE WONDERFUL poet, T.S. Eliot, wrote “humankind cannot bear very much reality”. One of the realities that I believe many us have failed to come to terms with is that an effective coronavirus vaccine isn’t just a few months away, but is instead several years away. I believe we will eventually get […]
Why a new stimulus deal could be critical for US polyethylene demand
By John Richardson GOVERNMENT stimulus is crucial for protecting polyethylene (PE) markets in the West from the worst effects of the pandemic, in my opinion. The developing world is a different story because of the rise of extreme poverty. There are other factors behind the resilience of PE demand the US and the EU such […]
Why a hard look at the data show China has not seen a V-shaped recovery
Note: All the data comparisons below are year-on-year By John Richardson IF YOU closely study H1 data on China petrochemical imports and production, combine this with full-year demand-growth forecasts, talk to market participants and add in the macro data there is in my view only one conclusion: China has not […]
China moves closer to Iran as tensions with the US build: Implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson Opinions and emotions and can shape how we interpret data, but, as we all know, our personal views need to be put on hold and our emotions held in check when the numbers are being crunched. This is of course easier said than done on highly emotive subjects such as the widening […]
China polyolefins market H1 review: so far so good, but beware of the risks ahead
By John Richardson ALL looks fine in the polyolefins world. The Old Normal appears to have reasserted itself as Chinese demand has come roaring back. (Note that all the following numbers are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated.) H1 2020 data shows that polyethylene (PE) apparent demand (net imports plus local production) grew by […]
Polyethylene market recovery could be threatened by slower China crude buying, weaker economic growth
By John Richardson EVEN by China’s standards, where just about every number is eye-wateringly large, the data on oil imports during the first seven months of this year is quite extraordinary. Reuters writes: July seaborne arrivals into the world’s biggest oil importer are expected to surge to 14.4m bbl/day, Refinitiv analyst Emma Li said, well […]
Why the polypropylene industry must switch from volumes to value
By John Richardson EVERYONE knows about the oversupply in the polyethylene (PE) market as it has been discussed in more presentations and conferences than any of have had hot dinners. But less understood is the extent of oversupply in the global polypropylene (PP) business, which you can see from the above chart on the left. […]