By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart shows that in April the average spread between CFR Japan naphtha feedstock costs and CFR Northeast Asia (NEA) benzene prices was just $19/tonne, its lowest level since January 2009 during the Global Economic Crisis. AS with Doctor Copper, benzene is a major raw materials building block for many manufacturing […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Plastics pollution crisis: Impact on polyethylene margins in 2022-2027
By John Richardson ALMOST all countries late last week signed a UN deal to monitor the flow of hard-to-recycle plastics to poorer countries. The US was amongst the few countries which declined to sign the agreement. The deal is the result of the increase in contaminated plastic waste exports to Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam etc. […]
China PE demand boom will not stop further margin declines
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) market is being temporarily weighed down by overstocking which is the result of the big surge in March imports. Many of the arrivals in March were of material booked late last year when oil and so PE prices were falling, drawing traders and Chinese buyers into major commitments. This […]
China holds all the petchems demand aces as it digs in for longer trade war
By John Richardson THE STRENGTH of China’s position in the intensifying trade war is further underlined by the above chart. In everything from oil and gas through to petrochemicals and finished goods, China is the world’s biggest market. Minus off China from consumption and many other developing countries, and even entire regions, can sometimes almost […]
President Trump’s Tweets increase risk of no trade deal until 2021
By John Richardson THE PROSPECTS of a trade deal seem to have have faded into the distance as a result of Tweeted threats from President Trump that the US will raise tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200bn worth of Chinese imports, including several chemicals and plastics. The increase would happen on Friday, he said. […]
Pressure on US builds as PE exports to China tumble and EU considers tariffs
By John Richardson DONALD TRUMP insisted in early March that he was willing to walk away from a bad trade deal with China. But it now appears that the US is prepared to water down its demands in the interests of getting a deal done. The above chart helps to explain why. The first bar […]
China 2019 PE demand grows in double digits as PP struggles
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets continue to tell us something very important about the broader economy. In PE, Q1 net import and production data when annualised for the full-year 2019 implies demand growth of 11% over last year. This would be even higher than in 2018, when consumption compared with […]
No room for cynicism as China targets major plastic clean-up
By John Richardson THE CYNICS out there would have you believe that the global plastics rubbish crisis is a passing fad, something that will fade from public consciousness as another “trendy cause” captures the popular imagination. They also want you think that the concern over plastic rubbish is almost entirely a rich world luxury. When […]
China inland polyethylene growth: The big unanswered question
By John Richardson IF China played an insignificant role in global polyethylene (PE) demand the above chart would not matter. Few people would care about the latent potential of China’s 21 relatively poor mainland provinces if China were as unimportant as India and the Asia & Pacific region. “Surely not? India and Asia & Pacific […]
New ICIS podcast: Searching for a better way to forecast China
By John Richardson Click here for my latest interview with Will Beacham, Deputy of ICIS Chemical Business (go to the Download Episode icon, download and listen), where I discuss the great black hole that is always China. The long standing problem remains the unreliability of data for the world’s most important chemicals markets. I […]