If we are to see a repeat of 87% in 2024-2030 (the green line in the chart) and assuming my forecast of 2% demand growth is correct, the increase in global capacity would need to average just 154,000 tonnes/year during each year between 2024 and 2030. This is versus our base case of 4.5m tonnes/year of annual increases.
Asian Chemical Connections
Global ethylene capacity growth would need to be 90% lower than the ICIS base case for healthy 2024-2030 operating rates
The blue line in the above chart involves annual average capacity growing at just 800,000 tonnes/year in each of the years between 2024 and 2030. This is versus our base case assumption of 7m tonnes/year of capacity growth during each of the years.
China’s 2023-2030 polyolefins demand growth and the new mood music
I think that China’s polyethylene (PE) demand growth averaged 2% across the three grades in 2023. I see this year’s growth at between 1-3%, and at the same levels up until 2030.
Supermajors versus Deglobalisation scenarios: The impact on petrochemicals and recycling
THERE ARE TWO scenarios or roads down which the petrochemicals industry could travel over the next ten years, with arrival either at Supermajors or Deglobalisation.
Why HDPE and other petchem operating rates could remain at record lows until 2030
UNTIL I FULLY understood the potential supply and industry economics implications of converting a lot more oil into petrochemicals, what’s happening to demand and the extent of China’s future self-sufficiency, I used to present charts such as the one above to clients with the proviso: “The good news is that this chart will almost certainly be wrong”. NOW I AM NOT SO SURE
The “National Champions” in the New Petrochemicals Landscape
SHORT-TERM tactics should involve maximising returns within regions along with a greater focus on exports anywhere in the world
China self-sufficiency drive expected to accelerate in PE, PP, EG and PX
You might think it impossible for China to reach complete self-sufficiency in PE, PP, EG and PX. History suggests otherwise.
A fundamental shift in thinking on petrochemical plant closures
Environmental, social and political factors – along with integration into upstream petrochemicals – have held back plant closures. Now, things seems very different.
Overstocking may have boosted China PE demand as the US continues to win while others lose
THE US gains $296m in China HDPE sales as Asian and Middle East exporters lose $1.4bn.
China PE demand continues to disappoint as real-estate woes persist
CHINA’S polyethylene demand growth in 2023 looks set to be flat over last year versus earlier forecasts of a 1.7m tonnes increase.