By John Richardson THE FUTURE I described on Wednesday, of declining petrochemicals and polymers demand growth as the Millennials reshape consumer markets, is only doom and gloom if you let it be doom and gloom. This represents a fantastic opportunity for companies in our industry to entirely reshape their strategies and emerge as winners. Gone […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China PE overstocking at above a million tonnes as Beijing struggles to boost economy
By John Richardson EVEN IF our base case growth rate* for PE in China in 2019 proves to be correct the H1 data still suggest excess inventories of 755,000 tonnes (click here for a post explaining the methodology). As the China economy further decelerates due to the trade war and domestic economic problems, I believe […]
China trade war duties on US LDPE “very likely” as global recession concerns grow
By John Richardson IT IS very likely that China will impose 25% additional imports duties on LDPE in response to the latest US escalation of the trade war, market sources have told me this week. This would add to the 25% duties that have been in place on US HDPE and LLDPE cargoes since August […]
US declaring China currency manipulator risks 10.8m tonnes of global petrochemicals demand
By John Richardson BY PLAYING with fire President Trump has very likely set the forest on fire. Today’s decision by the White House decision to declare China a currency manipulator makes a global recession even more likely than it was yesterday, when I discussed the negative economic results of the president’s plan to levy […]
Trump latest tariffs risk global recession, 3.8m tonne lost PE demand
By John Richardson PRESIDENT Trump is playing with fire as a result of his plan to impose 10% import tariffs on a further $300bn of Chinese imports. This threatens to push the world into a global recession. (I hope you took notice when I warned you to expect very little from last week’s trade talks). […]
Multiple trade disputes and the risks for the US PE industry
By John Richardson FALLING out with a trading partner as big as China is problematic enough. But the US is also out of sorts with the EU, India and Turkey and is at risk of ending up in a dispute with Vietnam. The row with China is far from being resolved despite the G20 truce. […]
China PE overstocking at nearly a million tonnes as demand weakens, competition intensifies
By John Richardson MEASURING petrochemicals and polymer inventory levels in China with any reasonable degree of accuracy is an impossible task. Nobody can quite obviously count every single plastic pallet in every warehouse up and down China’s vast distribution chains. Sinopec and PetroChina do, however, report their inventory levels. This is at least something and […]
China petrochemicals recovery on G20 trade war progress will be shortlived
By John Richardson China petrochemical and polymer price spreads over naphtha feedstock costs will rebound over the next few weeks as a result of events at the G2o meeting in Japan. The US has agreed to resume trade talks with China and pause on imposing any more tariffs on Chinese goods. Buyers of petrochemicals and […]
President Trump’s Vietnam warning threatens more polyethylene disruptions
Just to stress that, as always, what follows are my own personal views and not those of ICIS By John Richardson DON’T say I didn’t warn you. Three weeks ago I said that Vietnam could well be dragged into the trade war. “A lot of companies are moving to Vietnam, but Vietnam takes advantage of […]
Southeast Asia PE spreads further underline weak demand, but trade talks promise rebound
By John Richardson THE GOOD news today is that the US and China have agreed to resume trade talks. Presidents Trump and Xi are also scheduled to meet at the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, on Saturday – 29 June – to discuss the trade dispute. If a trade deal is done, or at the […]