By John Richardson IT HAS happened. Don’t say you weren’t told, as I have been warning you to prepare for this since President Trump became president. The president’s decision to impose $50bn worth of tariffs on US imports from China has led to immediate retaliation from China. China has announced its own list of US […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Polyethylene Strong Q1 Growth Doesn’t Reflect Risks Ahead
By John Richardson CHINA’S Q1 2018 polypropylene (PP) imports were down by 20% year-on-year as apparent demand (net imports plus local production) rose by just 1% on the steep fall in the availability of lending. Meanwhile, overall polyethylene (PE) imports were up by 12% as apparent PE demand grew by 9%. Does this mean that […]
Petchems Markets To Become Entirely Regional As Trade Barriers Increase
By John Richardson WHEN Donald Trump held election rallies during 2016, the amount of anger directed at mainstream Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton was, as everyone knows, intense. She represented the kind of mainstream politician that many of those who voted for President Trump blamed for stagnating middle class income levels and the loss of […]
As Global Trade War Moves Closer, Impact On Petchems In 2018-2019
By John Richardson IT USED to be the case that one week was a long time in politics, but now, because of policy conducted via Twitter and other forms of social media, five minutes seems to be a long time in politics. The state of events can change by the time you’ve left your screen […]
China Innovation Success Versus Failure: Electric Vehicles As Case Study
By John Richardson WHAT is the best route to innovation? Pure capitalism with a minimum amount of state interference or state-led investment programmes? The answer is likely to of course vary sector by sector. In some industrial sectors, the capitalist approach will work and in others, heavy state involvement will be more effective. A hybrid […]
China Overlooked Lending Data Down 64% As Economic Slowdown Continues
By John Richardson FAR too little attention is still being paid to China’s lending data even though this has long been the key measure of whether its economy is accelerating or slowing down. In January 2014, lending in China started to slow down as China’s recently appointed president, Xi Jinping, exerted his authority. At that […]
Polyethylene Margins Face Collapse On Overcapacity
By John Richardson THE consensus view is that whilst global polyethylene (PE) margins have further to fall from their levels so far in 2018 (see the above chart), they will not get that much worse. It is thought that the PE downcycle will be brief and very shallow because of booming global demand for PE […]
US-China Trade Dispute: Pause For Breath Does Not Mean End In Sight
By John Richardson Confused? You might well be if you’ve read the news reports following the US-China trade meeting in Washington last week. The immediate threat of a trade war looks as if it has been averted. China’s top envoy at the trade talks, Liu He, said that both sides had agreed for the time […]
China Emerges As Winner In New Multipolar World
By John Richardson TODAY’S headline should be written on your petrochemicals company boardroom wall, in several inch-high capital letters, and should then be used as the basis for a deep discussion about the consequences of this outcome for your business. You should then build scenarios around how this would change investment strategies and trade flows. […]
Asian Polyolefins Profits To Test 2012 Lows As Global Economy Slows
By John Richardson PETROCHEMICALS are a great barometer for economic growth as they are the raw materials for so many finished goods. So, if petrochemicals producers see their profits slip, this provides an early signal that something is wrong with wider economies. It is not just petchems producers that should therefore take note of the […]