By John Richardson THE big hope is that once China returns from its National Holidays (1-7 October), petrochemicals markets will enjoy a big and sustainable recovery. It is not going to happen. Throughout this year, the hope has been that the recovery is just around the corner. People have argued that deteriorating economic data has been […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Rising Labour Costs Threaten US Projects
By John Richardson RISING labour costs will impact the viability of US petrochemicals projects as a result of the surge in overall hydrocarbons construction activity, an industry source told the blog. “Unless companies lock-in their labour costs fairly quickly, before the big surge in activity ahead of numerous cracker and derivatives start-ups planned for 216-2017, […]
China Politics Before Economics
By John Richardson CHINA’S manufacturing activity did, at least, stabilise in September after hitting a nine-month low in August, according to the latest preliminary HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI). The PMI improved to 47.8% in September compared with 47.6% in August. Elsewhere, as the chart above shows, Eurozone and US PMI indices declined. The […]
China Exports, Rebalancing Scenarios
Source of chart: Morgan Stanley By John Richardson CHINA might soon raise export tax rebates, as it did during the 2008-2009 global economic crisis. Some chemicals and polymers exporters to China would welcome the increase in export tax rebates (this would make re-exports of finished goods from China more competitive). But on this occasion, […]
Uncertainties Over US Gas Pricing
By John Richardson NOBODY saw the shale gas technological breakthroughs coming and thus the revival of the US petrochemicals industry took everybody by surprise. Today the accepted wisdom is that the US industry will remain a license to print money for many years to come. But as we have discussed before, the substantial amount of […]
Mitt Romney Risks China Trade War
By John Richardson MITT Romney is playing a dangerous game with pre-election rhetoric that might end up tying him to a policy decision that results in a US-China trade war, warns Stephen Roach, the former head of Morgan Stanley Asia and senior fellow at Yale University, in this article. in yesterday’s Financial Times. The Republican presidential nominee has […]
China PE Demand Down 3 Percent
By John Richardson GROUND level economic conditions in China are still a lot weaker than headline GDP (gross domestic product) numbers suggest. For example, a polyvinyl chloride (PVC) sales and marketing executive said: “PVC demand growth is going to be in minus territory this year. Carbide-based producers are likely to continue to have to run […]
Global Polyethylene Margin Picture
By John Richardson ASIAN high-density polyethylene (HDPE) margins have improved in June and July compared with the rest of the year, according to the above chart from the ICIS Weekly PE Margin Report. But the overall year-to-date trend illustrates how the industry has lacked pricing power as a result of persistently weak Chinese demand. August […]
Dow: China GDP Growth 3-5 Percent
By John Richardson DOW Chemical’s Andrew Liveris has changed his views on China as a result of an economic slowdown that seems to have taken many people by surprise. “China’s economy has continued to decelerate as European exports suffered,” said Liveris, as the company last week announced a 34 percent fall in profits year-on-year […]
US Chemicals Still Behind 2007
By John Richardson US chemicals production remains way below its pre-crisis 2007 level but production in Asia-Pacific, after a brief blip in 2009, continues to soar, according to these charts from the American Chemistry Council. Whereas US producers have carried out few capacity expansions since 2007 and are runnning existing plants at lower operating rates, […]
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