By John Richardson YOU CANNOT stimulate economic activity when factories and offices need to be shut down, airlines are forced to cancel thousands of flights and conference organisers are compelled to cancel events. This is the dilemma that central bankers face, raising major doubts over whether “buy on the dip” will continue to work in […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China polyethylene imports could be 3m tonnes lower as economy seizes up
By John Richardson IT IS TIME for crisis planning, I am afraid, as a result of the World Health Organisation’s warning that the “window of opportunity” for preventing a global pandemic is narrowing. The risks have increased substantially over the last few days with major outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy and South Korea. A disease […]
Global polyethylene demand in 2020 at risk of 2.4m decline because of coronavirus
By John Richardson I AM a bit confused this morning following some excitement about the Chinese decision to allow polyethylene (PE) importers to apply for exemptions from the 25% additional tariffs on US high-density (HDPE) and linear-low density PE (LLDPE) that have been in place since August 2018. One of my contacts for instance sent […]
Coronavirus: Global polypropylene demand in 2020 could fall by 2.6m tonnes over last year
By John Richardson SOME GOOD news might be that official Chinese state media announced that the number of coronavirus cases outside Hubei province had up until Saturday fallen for 12 days in a row. But given the difficulty of diagnosing the disease, and last week’s sharp upward revision in Chinese estimates of the total number […]
China single-use plastic bans: Polyethylene imports 68m tonnes lower in 2020-2030
By John Richardson THE good news from a “business as usual” perspective is that China’s polyethylene (PE) demand might have exceeded our expectations in 2019 by some 800,000 tonnes. Preliminary discussions with my contacts point towards growth of 10% in 2019 over last year rather than our forecast of 7.8% as a result of continued […]
Why the trade deal is much ado about almost nothing
These are, as always, my personal views and do not express the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson RELATIONSHIPS between the US and China reached a major low point in May 2018 when details of the full scale of US demands were leaked to the Chinese. They required China to abandon its economic growth […]
Higher Asian ethylene and polyethylene prices do not mean we are past the bottom of the downcycle
By John Richardson THE RISE in Asian spot ethylene prices is being cited as evidence of better downstream polyethylene (PE) supply and demand fundamentals. I am not convinced, partly because the ethylene spot market in Asia is so thinly traded that a myriad of unrelated factors could be behind the recent price increases. PE prices […]
Why President Trump, unlike with Iran, will find it harder to shift course on China
As always, these are my personal views only and do not represent the views of ICIS. Thank you By John Richardson A WILLINGNESS to change policy direction in almost the blink of an eye is one of the messages from this week’s geopolitical chaos. When many of us thought the US was about to […]
Iran and the US: Assessing the risks for petrochemicals and the global economy
As always, these are my personal views only and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson AT TIMES like this it’s very hard to be dispassionate. Emotions run high on either side of the widening political gulf as the two factions shout ever-more loudly at each other and refuse to listen. This is […]
US/China trade deal achieves little as China pushes hard towards petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson PRESIDENT Trump has promised a “tremendous amount of business” for US farmers following the announcement of a “Phase 1” trade agreement with China. But US claims that China will eventually buy up to as much as $50bn of US agricultural products seem to defy economic logic given the price of soybeans, the […]