By John Richardson SOME PEOPLE argue that despite the rapid rise in Chinese consumer debt over the last few years, there is nothing to worry about because consumer debt as a percentage of GDP China still lags behind Western countries. This misses the point and is an example of the dangerous “all is right with […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China economic stimulus and PP: How global demand could have been 71m tonnes smaller
By John Richardson CHINA came to the rescue of the global economy in 2009. This wasn’t for altruistic reasons as a government study said that unless a huge stimulus programme was launched, 20m Chinese workers would return to the coastal cities from inland China after the Lunar New Year in 2009 without jobs. This would […]
Hong Kong an example of rising political risk and the end of easy growth
This blog expresses my opinions and not those of ICIS By John Ricuardson THE UNREST in Hong Kong worsened over the weekend. Protestors were pepper-sprayed, rubber bullets were used and travellers on the Hong Kong underground were filmed being beaten by the police. Petrol bombs were thrown by demonstrators. This morning Hong Kong’s airport was […]
China imposes trade-war tariffs in US LDPE and raises tariffs on HDPE and LLDPE
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you. As I predicted, China has levied trade-war tariffs on US LDPE as the long term US and China battles over trade, technology and geopolitics intensify. US LDPE imports will be subject to 10% tariffs from 15 December. The 25% tariffs that China imposed on US HDPE […]
How sustainability will upend the petrochemicals cost curve, creating new winners and losers
By John Richardson THE FUTURE I described on Wednesday, of declining petrochemicals and polymers demand growth as the Millennials reshape consumer markets, is only doom and gloom if you let it be doom and gloom. This represents a fantastic opportunity for companies in our industry to entirely reshape their strategies and emerge as winners. Gone […]
How we could all end up as losers from President Trump’s trade policies
The views below are my own, and, as always, do not express the opinion of ICIS By John Richardson REGARDLESS of your politics you should worry about Donald Trump’s claim that the trade war is hurting the Chinese economy and that the US is therefore winning. For reasons I shall is explain in this post, […]
President Trump’s tariff concession adds to uncertainties as we drift towards a bipolar world
The following opinions are my personal views, and, as always, do not express the views of ICIS By John Richardson PRESIDENT TRUMP could have blinked at the prospect of Christmas shoppers punishing him at the ballot box for the increased cost of gifts beneath their trees. This is what I think is behind his decision […]
China PE overstocking at above a million tonnes as Beijing struggles to boost economy
By John Richardson EVEN IF our base case growth rate* for PE in China in 2019 proves to be correct the H1 data still suggest excess inventories of 755,000 tonnes (click here for a post explaining the methodology). As the China economy further decelerates due to the trade war and domestic economic problems, I believe […]
China trade war duties on US LDPE “very likely” as global recession concerns grow
By John Richardson IT IS very likely that China will impose 25% additional imports duties on LDPE in response to the latest US escalation of the trade war, market sources have told me this week. This would add to the 25% duties that have been in place on US HDPE and LLDPE cargoes since August […]
Trump latest tariffs risk global recession, 3.8m tonne lost PE demand
By John Richardson PRESIDENT Trump is playing with fire as a result of his plan to impose 10% import tariffs on a further $300bn of Chinese imports. This threatens to push the world into a global recession. (I hope you took notice when I warned you to expect very little from last week’s trade talks). […]