By John Richardson NOTHING that has happened over the last 24 hours should take you by surprise. Your petrochemicals company has had ample time to prepare for the US-China trade war that has now become a much stronger possibility following the US decision to impose $60bn of new tariffs on Chinese imports. Shortly after President […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US Polyethylene: Even Without Trade War, $6.2bn Of Sales In China At Risk
By John Richardson AS THE number of exemptions from the new US steel and aluminium tariffs grow for Americas “friends”, the direct impact of the tariffs might end up being fairly minimal. So far, Canada, Mexico and Australia have been let off the hook. But the national security basis upon which the tariffs have been […]
Global Trade War: $12.4bn of US Petchems Exports At Risk
By John Richardson THE CUMULATIVE negative effect on global GDP as more and more countries became involved in a trade war is estimated by the above table on the left, from a research paper by economists as the Australian National University. The table shows the impact of each country imposing an extra 10% tariffs on […]
China And US On Collision Course As Trade Tensions Build
By John Richardson Yesterday, President Trump threatened to impose penalties on China for alleged abuse of intellectual property right rules. Below is the context behind way claims of abuses are likely to increase in the future. This suggests that China and the US are on a collision course over trade, with major negative implications for […]
US Import Tariff Decision: Impact On Polyethylene And The Global Economy
By John Richardson THE PROSPECT of a US-China trade war has edged closer as a result of President Trump’s announcement yesterday that the US will impose 25% import tariffs on steel and 10% import tariffs on aluminium. Countries hit hard by the tariffs will include China and Canada. We luckily avoided a trade war in […]
Asian Naphtha-PE Spreads Collapse By 80% As 2018 Challenges Build
By John Richardson ASIAN naphtha-to-polyethylene (PE) spreads collapsed by 80% in the first week of January compared with December last year because of the failure to pass on the rise in naphtha feedstock costs resulting from higher oil prices. In an update of the chart I’ve been running since late last year, what you see […]
US-China Trade Relations In 2018: Prepare For The Worst
By John Richardson WE GOT away with it in 2017 by luck rather than design, as there is of course very little that petrochemicals and polymers companies can do to prevent a global trade war other than lobbying politicians. Part of the reason for the lucky escape was the warmth of the Trump-Xi meeting in […]
Cheap Oil Raises Naphtha Cracker Over Investment Risk
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart shows that from January 2015 up until November of this year, the Asian naphtha cracker industry has been making a great deal of money. The orange bars are the premiums in percentage terms between feedstock costs and the prices of one grade of polyethylene (PE) – high-density PE injection […]
Crude Drives Asian Polyethylene Spreads To Three-Year Low As 2018 Risks Build
By John Richardson IN MARCH 2016 we gave three scenarios for crude-oil prices: Collapsing Demand where we saw crude falling to $25/bbl on weak global demand that would make it impossible to repay much of the huge debts that had been built up since 2008. This is the result of economic stimulus polices that we maintain […]
Global Polypropylene In 2018-2025: What To Plan For
By John Richardson THIS could be an excellent investment opportunity. Our ICIS Supply and Demand Database base case for Asian and global polypropylene (PP) operating rates sees the steady and steep climb that began in 2014 carrying on until a peak in 2020. In that year, global operating rates will reach 94% and Asian capacity […]
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