By John Richardson WHICH President Trump will end up setting the final direction of policy? Will it be the President Trump who spoke off-script at a campaign-style rally in Phoenix, Arizona, this week or the President who a day later addressed military veterans in Reno, Nevada, in much more measured tones? Or will the ultimate […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China To Drive 55% Of Global Polyethylene Growth In 2007-2017….
.…Major risks ahead from this over-dependence on China By John Richardson FOLLOWING on from my post on Friday, which showed almost exactly the same story for polypropylene (PP), see the above chart detailing the importance to the global polyethylene (PE) business of China’s consumption growth. Over-exposure to China is a greater risk in the […]
China’s Polyethylene Market Faces Long Destocking Process
China’s polyethylene (PE) imports surged and domestic production saw strong growth in Q1. This occurred as the economy slowed down on reduced availability of credit and the pollution clean-up. Even if global producers saw this coming, they had no other choice but to raise exports to China late last year for arrival in Q1. This once again […]
New Petchems Business Model Based On Trading Blocs
By John Richardson THE above chart should give every analyst who thinks low feedstock costs are by themselves guarantee of success in petrochemicals pause for thought: US net polyethylene (PE) exports in 2016 were 5,000 tonnes lower than in 2015, even though one would have expected exports to have been ramped-up last year. Increased exports would have helped […]
The Denial Simply Has To Stop
By John Richardson THE old petrochemicals business model was so fantastically successful during the Economic Supercycle that it is perfectly understandable why companies and industry analysts are reluctant to even consider that it may no longer work. Why on earth abandon an approach that delivered great returns for companies and investors? But the model – […]
China Becomes Dominant Superpower: Implications For Petchems
By John Richardson CHINA can become the world’s No1 Superpower, replacing the US, if it can rise to challenges such as these: Asia needs US$8trn of investment in the decade to 2020 to deal with its infrastructure deficit. As countries with urban populations expand, demand for transport, logistics and utilities will place a major burden […]
How To Battle For Value In Oversupplied Markets
By John Richardson FOR the moment all is good, as the chart above illustrates, which details the premiums that C6 metallocene-grade linear-low density (LLDPE) have enjoyed over standard commodity grade C4 LLDPE in the key China market. The October 2010 start date in the chart is when we began our C6 assessment (we don’t assess […]
China PP Import Decline Challenges Global Markets
By John Richardson THE latest data on China’s polypropylene (PP) imports should set alarm bells ringing in polyolefin company board rooms: China’s PP production was up by 14% in January-April 2016 versus the same four months last year, with imports falling by 20% on the same year-on-year basis. January-April imports in 2016 were at their […]
US Ethane Shipments And The Broader Picture
By John Richardson THE first shipment of ethane from the US to Europe, which is set to arrive on Wednesday to feed the INEOS cracker at Rafnes in Norway, will be widely interpreted as meaningonly one thing: That nothing in petrochemicals has essentially changed , as most of what we do to be successful is […]
Investors Mislead US On Oil Versus Natural Gas
By John Richardson DID you raise the right concerns during board meetings before the end of great oil-price bull run? If you didn’t, this is not intended as a criticism because it would quite likely have been career suicide to tell your CEO that something might go wrong. What’s important now, though, is not to […]
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