By John Richardson THERE are reports of significant cuts in Middle East polyethylene (PE) operating rates because of reduced availability of associated ethane gas feedstock, the result of lower oil output. Combine this with the official Chinese government narrative of a strong recovery in the local economy, along with the emergence of much of the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s big declines in 2020 PX and PP imports: the impact on its major trading partners
By John Richardson CHINA’S refineries and petrochemicals plants came roaring back to almost full production in April as the country’s coronavirus lockdown came to an end, even though downstream manufacturing was a long way from full recovery. As of last week, I was told by my contacts in China that petrochemicals and polymers buyers were […]
Why the EU could become polyethylene self-sufficient in the post-pandemic world
By John Richardson ONE OF the many unknowns about the post-pandemic world is the extent to which the backlash against plastic rubbish will be revived. I certainly hope it is revived, otherwise, combined with climate change, our future looks pretty grim. How will the public – and thus those legislators who need to be elected […]
Polyethylene producers must avoid repeating the mistakes of Q1
By John Richardson AFTER a very challenging first quarter, nobody wants to make further write-downs on the value of raw materials and finished-product inventories. But this is the risk for any polyethylene (PE) producer who believes the recent rallies in equity markets and oil prices are leading indicators for the strength of the real economy. […]
Coronavirus, impact on the developing world and the scale of demand losses
By John Richardson ALL OF us are struggling to come to terms with a collapse in the global economy that is poised to be worse than the Great Depression – in Britain’s case its deepest recession since the “Great Frost” of 1709. In the US, Wall Street analysts expect the US unemployment rate to still […]
Further polyethylene rate cuts seem inevitable with no certainty on who will blink first
By John Richardson IT IS NOT just a razor-like focus on petrochemicals demand that will get you through the crisis. Also essential is an equally close focus on production in a world where all the old assumptions about winners and losers have been turned upside down. But, as with demand, monitoring and forecasting production has […]
Coronavirus and the way forward: Forecasting micro surges in petrochemicals demand
By John Richardson THE MONTH of May is normally a low season for toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) demand in Europe because of reduced consumption of goods such as sofas and beds filled with flexible foams made from TDI. Perhaps not this year. There are reports from our market editors of long queues outside some furniture stores […]
Why Asia may win and the US lose in post-virus petchems investment world
As always, these are my personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson IT IS A polyethylene (PE) world turned upside down which, in my view, will remain upside down. With oil prices set to stay around $30/bbl over the long term, the US ethane advantage is in my opinion pretty […]
Post-coronavirus world: How China could end up in a stronger position
These are, always, my views only and not the views of ICIS Here is another of attempt at long-term crystal-ball gazing where I again try to imagine the petrochemicals landscape in the post-coronavirus 2025 world. My earlier post had looked at the rise of sustainability and affordability that could work in parallel with the emergence […]
Ways of dealing with COVID-19 don’t have to be rocket science
By John Richardson IT IS all about getting through the next 12 months with minimal damage whilst preparing for what the New Normal will look like when the COVID-19 crisis is over. I believe that changes in the nature of demand will be accelerated by the virus. These changes were already well underway before this […]