By John Richardson THE ABOVE table illustrates the 2018 impact on smaller LLDPE markets of the arrival of big volumes of new US production. Big percentage increases such as these can be misleading when they are from very small bases. But look at it from this angle: Vietnam, Turkey, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan, province of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US/China trade deal in March would likely quickly unravel
By John Richardson YOU CAN bet on a rally in equity markets and in oil prices if some kind of deal is announced by the US and China over their trade dispute by the 1 March deadline. But we could be back to Square One if a deal is then picked apart by President Trump’s […]
China slowdown: After Apple, next wake-up call will be from auto markets
By John Richardson THE NEXT big wake-up fall for global financial markets and the chemicals industry is likely to ring loud from the autos market. Expect global auto sales growth estimates for 2019 to be revised downwards with a steep sell-off in the share prices of the major car producers, as everyone realises that sales […]
The world in 2019: Social unrest, populist politics, trade barriers and global recession
By John Richardson I PREDICTED in 2011 that the world would by a decade later be less globalised as a result of new trade barriers erected by populist politicians. Nature abhors a vacuum and so vacuums in nature are quickly filled. The same applies to politics and society. I warned that the failure to address […]
Nothing the Fed can do to stop China causing a global recession
By John Richardson US stock markets yesterday demonstrated their worst negative reaction to a US Federal rate rise since 1994. Asian equities also fell this morning in response to the Fed decision. But you would be entirely wrong to conclude that all that needs to happen to return to the bull run is for the […]
You must not assume a Goldilocks oil price in 2019 – not too hot, not cold
By John Richardson TIME AND again people get oil markets wrong because they entirely focus on the physical supply and demand of the black stuff whilst ignoring the pivotal role that financial speculators play in driving prices higher or lower. Since 2000, futures speculation has greatly increased because of regulatory liberalisation, as I wrote in […]
Asian PE margins to test 2012 lows as consensus catches up with economic realities
By John Richardson IT HAS been evident since as early as February this year that China’s economy is slowing down. But once again, as in 2014, companies and investors have overlooked the key indicator of a slowdown: The sharp decline in credit availability, particularly via China’s shadow banking system. “Not to worry,” I can hear […]
Scenario 1 inevitable? Are you really, really, hand on heart, that sure?
ICIS and the UK–based chemicals company International eChem had the privilege of making a presentation during the Knowledge Sharing Partners event at last month’s GPCA Forum in Dubai. The conference was organised by our excellent ICIS Conferences team. Please click this link for a copy of our slides: ICISConsultingPresentationGPCA2018 If you would like to further discuss […]
Deep understanding of inland China essential for tracking 2019 slowdown
By John Richardson CHEMICALS companies are at great risk of getting Chinese demand very badly wrong in 2019 if they rely too heavily on flawed government data. This article from the South China Morning Post is another example of the long-standing practice of official data underestimating economic weakness when a downturn is taking place. The […]
Donald Trump’s “Tariff Man” Tweet exposes lack of G20 substance
By John Richardson That didn’t last long, did it? But anyone paying attention to the detail, or rather the lack of it from the Chinese perspective, would have known as early as Sunday morning Asian time that the G20 deal wasn’t a deal at all. It was just an agreement to start talking again. The […]