The optimism seems infectious: Reliance’s market capitalisation breached the RS3 trillion level today, placing the giant in an elite group of only three Indian companies.And the petrochemicals major is predicting 12.59m tonnes of polymer demand in India in 2011-12 with local supply at slightly below 8m tonnes/year.
The forecast big deficit is based on a very rosy view of the economy and therefore polymer demand growth. Its estimate for polymer consumption in 2006-07 is a mere 5.49m tonnes.
Reliance might be using these bullish demand-growth numbers ahead of firming up a cracker project in India, which was first announced several years ago. The project is due on stream after 2010. Next year, the Indian major will commission 900,000 tonnes/year of polypropylene at Jamnagar.
Are Reliance and its investors guilty of irrational exuberance?