The current run-up in equities might go on and on – perhaps even for several years, according to economist Russell Napier.
For example,the stock market rally after the dot com bubble burst was fuelled by too-lax lending. Was this in effect a bear-market boom?
Now governments are pouring money into economies the world over to stimulate consumption.
This will lead in perhaps as long as 2-3 years time to a big inflation problem, the Chinese losing their appetite for US Treasuries, Treasury yields doubling and a cataclysmic bear market with the S&P falling to 400.
Until then, S&P could easily double from its March low, predicts Napier
Do you have the courage to stick your money in and wait?
It still feels counter-intuitive that the current run-up will last a few years given the scale of consumer and corporate debt.
But since when has logic had anything to do with anything?