By John Richardson Confidence among Middle Eastern petrochemical producers remains high because they obviously now that as long as oil prices do not collapse they will continue to make excellent money, said a chemicals analyst. The blog believes that there is a very strong chance that crude will collapse to as little as $25 a […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Why China PE Demand Will Not Grow In 2011
By John Richardson THE blog hears that some industry observers are persisting with the Supercycle theory for petrochemicals based on “decoupling” – i.e. emerging markets will compensate for any new recessions in the West. We find this baffling as evidence points to a lost year of growth in China. The prospects for next year seem […]
Limited Help For China’s SMEs
By John Richardson THE credit crisis that is limiting chemicals and polymer trade in China is continuing, even though local initiatives have been launched to help small and medium-sized enterprise (SMEs) with the central government indicating that more help could be on the way. As we have discussed before on the blog, the trade finance crisis […]
Oil demand set to slip, will prices follow?
By Malini Hariharan The International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again trimmed its oil demand forecast for 2011. And rising fears of a sustained global economic slowdown have also prompted the agency to cut the forecast for 2012. The IEA made it clear that expectations of ‘business-as-usual’ 4.5-5% global GDP growth were unsustainable. It cut […]
PDH spreads in China
By Malini Hariharan After methanol-to-propylene (MTP), Chinese companies are racing to build propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants with eight new projects announced over the last three months. The blog estimates that PDH projects with a total propylene capacity of 4.6m tonnes/year have been planned for completion in 2013-14 (a full list is available here China PDH […]
China’s Long-term Shift In Inflation
By John Richardson THE odd chemicals trader who has gone long might well seek to talk-up his or her markets by claiming that the slowdown in China’s inflation rate is great news. But nobody interested in anything beyond the sale of the next cargo should read anything too-positive into the decline in consumer inflation in August […]
This Is Not Merely A Rough Patch
By John Richardson IT was interesting to read late last week about how certain chemicals analysts still believe that the big slump in the sector’s share prices might merely be a rough patch, possibly just a correction. In this same excellent piece from my colleague Nigel Davis, Citi US chemicals analyst PJ Jukevar talks about how […]
MEG bucks the trend
By Malini Hariharan There are some exceptions to the generally weak petrochemical markets seen in Asia these days and monoethylene glycol (MEG) is one such product. Spot prices have hit a 44-month high of $1,275-1,280/tonne CFR China and are expected to soon cross $1,300/tonne, close to levels last seen in January 2008, reports Judith Wang, […]
Glass half full or half empty?
By Malini Hariharan Despite a bleak global economic environment in the near term and uncertainty on how deep the next crisis will be chemical industry executives appear to be remarkably bullish about future prospects as is evident in KPMG’s latest industry survey. Eighty five per cent of the 142 senior chemical industry executives surveyed in […]
Last chance for Taiwan petchems
By Malini Hariharan The Taiwanese government is once again talking of removing a ban on cracker investments by Taiwanese companies on the mainland. The country’s minister of economic affairs said late last week that the government is willing to consider lifting the ban provided certain conditions are met. Taiwanese companies must have a controlling stake […]
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