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Mike Pence’s key China speech highlights Cold War risks for petchems

By John Richardson

US VICE president Mike Pence made a barely reported speech on 4 October in which his big theory was that Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama misread China.  Mr Pence said that the nation they …

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PE margins turn negative as economic risks build

By John Richardson

CASH margins for Asian linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) for naphtha-based producers have turned negative for the first time since Q1 2015, according to an industry contact.

And this is of course before the flood of new US …

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China polymer growth at risk of 8.6m tonne decline on trade war

By John Richardson

THERE is no other country or even region in the world that comes anywhere close to being as important to the global polymers industry as China, as the above chart reminds us.

From end-2017 until the end …

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US LLDPE exports to Europe to increase by at least 70% in 2019

By John Richardson

ON MONDAY I took the percentage shares of total US linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) exports in 2017 country by country and on this basis modelled what could happen in 2019.

We are next year due to see …

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US LLDPE needs 68% export growth next year to top five markets…..

…..and that’s assuming there is no trade war with China!

By John Richardson

THE MORE you dig into the data the more it seems that the US might struggle to find a comfortable home for all of its new polyethylene …

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Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene trade war disruptions

By John Richardson

BECAUSE CHINA is such a dominant player in finished goods manufacturing, US tariffs on Chinese imports as part of the trade war will have major negative effects upstream across a wide range of petrochemicals and polymers and …

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US styrene another petchems sector at risk from trade war

By John Richardson

THE US decision to pick a fight with China over trade and geopolitical influence could backfire very badly from the perspective of new US investments in petrochemicals capacity – most notably polyethylene (PE) and ethylene glycols (EG).…

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Middle East, India, SEA petchems winners in new trading blocs

By John Richardson

JACK MA, the founder of Alibaba, said of the US/China trade war, “It’s going to last a long time, maybe 20 years. It’s going to be a mess. It’s not a trade war, it’s about competition between …

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China’s time poor, cash rich will want less PP and not more

By John Richardson

LAST month I gave you the downside of urbanisation in China and how this could result in 7m tonnes of lower polyethylene (PE) demand in 2030 than we assume in our base case.

A very good contact …

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US and China heading towards a new Cold War

That didn’t last long – , in fact, less than 24 hours,, when, as far stock markets were concerned, it felt as if US/China trade tensions had eased. In a tweet, President Trump has now raised questions about whether any …

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