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China’s PE market in 2019 at risk of lower growth

 

By John Richardson

THIS MIGHT turn out to be another good year for Chinese PE demand growth as the preliminary estimate from our China team is that 2018 consumption growth will be 7% compared with last year.

This compares …

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China PP growth at risk from lower auto sales, trade war

By John Richardson

WE EXPECT China’s PP demand to rise by 6.5% in 2018 to total consumption of 27.8m tonnes. We then expect a further increase of 6% to 29.3m tonnes next year.

It is too early to say for …

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Mike Pence’s key China speech highlights Cold War risks for petchems

By John Richardson

US VICE president Mike Pence made a barely reported speech on 4 October in which his big theory was that Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama misread China.  Mr Pence said that the nation they …

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PE margins turn negative as economic risks build

By John Richardson

CASH margins for Asian linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) for naphtha-based producers have turned negative for the first time since Q1 2015, according to an industry contact.

And this is of course before the flood of new US …

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China polymer growth at risk of 8.6m tonne decline on trade war

By John Richardson

THERE is no other country or even region in the world that comes anywhere close to being as important to the global polymers industry as China, as the above chart reminds us.

From end-2017 until the end …

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Bursting of the US debt bubble and effect on petchems

By John Richardson

THE US economy is in a debt-induced bubble that will sooner or later burst with of course major negative consequences for the rest of the world.

You cannot print babies. The huge amounts of money that the …

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Sustainability to stop petchems from dominating oil growth…..

….and oil consumption into petchems might even decline because of the plastics rubbish crisis

By John Richardson

DONALD RUMSFELD famously categorised the future into “known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns”.

A new study by the International Energy Agency (IEA) …

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US LLDPE exports to Europe to increase by at least 70% in 2019

By John Richardson

ON MONDAY I took the percentage shares of total US linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) exports in 2017 country by country and on this basis modelled what could happen in 2019.

We are next year due to see …

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US LLDPE needs 68% export growth next year to top five markets…..

…..and that’s assuming there is no trade war with China!

By John Richardson

THE MORE you dig into the data the more it seems that the US might struggle to find a comfortable home for all of its new polyethylene …

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Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene trade war disruptions

By John Richardson

BECAUSE CHINA is such a dominant player in finished goods manufacturing, US tariffs on Chinese imports as part of the trade war will have major negative effects upstream across a wide range of petrochemicals and polymers and …

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