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Why US-China Talks May So Easily Fail To Avert Trade War

By John Richardson

CHINA might still be in a race against time to achieve enough levels of innovation to escape its middle-income trap. This could mean that it has no choice but to reach a deal with the US on …

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Global Trade War: $12.4bn of US Petchems Exports At Risk

By John Richardson

THE CUMULATIVE negative effect on global GDP as more and more countries became involved in a trade war is estimated by the above table on the left, from a research paper by economists as the Australian National …

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Climate Change, Extreme Weather: Implications For Chemicals Companies

By John Richardson

The greater frequency of extreme weather events presents a huge challenge for chemicals companies.

Take Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma as the most obvious current examples. Weather forecasting service AccuWeather writes in this article:

This is the …

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US Trade Policy Has So Far Bought China More Time…

…..But any number of outcomes remain possible, which underlines the fact that we live in a world of elevated political risk. Chemicals companies must, as a result, build multiple scenarios for future economic growth and trade flows.

By John Richardson…

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China And A Breakdown In Free Trade: Scenarios For Petrochemicals

By John Richardson

MY blog post last Friday, on the threat to the petrochemicals industry of a retreat in global free trade, has gained a great deal of interest. This is good as this is an essential debate.

Today I …

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Oil Prices: You Must Answer The Supercycle Argument

By John Richardson

THE continuing failure of genuine price discovery in oil markets was perfectly summarised  by the the Wall Street Journal today, when it wrote:

Commodity hedge funds added $4.1 billion in the first quarter, their best quarter in …

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Demographics And Economics: We Haven’t Even Had The Debate

By John Richardson

JAPAN has seen two decades of deflation and rising debts. Everyone should now recognise that Abenomics have failed to resolve this crisis. Abenomics were always going to fail because you cannot print babies.

What a pity that …

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China’s Yuan: Making Sense Of All The Noise

By John Richardson

LAST year nearly $1trn was moved out of China as rich people lost confidence in the direction of the economy. Much of this was moved if not illegally, then through stretching the rules to the very edge …

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Negative Interest Rates Will Not Work

By John Richardson

WE are entering an almost surreal world where Western central bankers, rather than admit they are wrong, have either already opted for, are in the case of the Fed are openly discussing, negative lending rates.

If the …

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Japan Repeats Its Mistake. You Cannot Print Babies

By John Richardson

WHEN you have built your reputation on a policy that has so far failed, you have essentially two options. You can either admit you were wrong and reverse course or double down on your mistake – i.e. …

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