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Middle East, India, SEA petchems winners in new trading blocs

By John Richardson

JACK MA, the founder of Alibaba, said of the US/China trade war, “It’s going to last a long time, maybe 20 years. It’s going to be a mess. It’s not a trade war, it’s about competition between …

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Polyethylene versus polypropylene: Expect the unexpected

By John Richardson

IT IS supposed to be a tale of two polymers with these very different fortunes: Whereas our base case assumes that global polypropylene (PP) operating rates will average a healthy 89% in 2018-2025, we see polyethylene (PE) …

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PE Margins Fall As Trade War Threatens Two Entirely Separate Trading Blocks

By John Richardson

LET’S FIRST of all take a close look at what the above chart is telling us about the damage already done to polyethylene (PE) margins before considering what could happen next.

US high-density PE (HDPE) margins are …

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Chinese PE Tariffs Come Into Effect: The Impact On The Global Business

By John Richardson

CHINA’S 25% import tariffs on all grades of US high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and 93% of the grades of linear-low density (LLDPE), which came into effect yesterday, look set to cause major damage to the global PE business. …

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US Risks Losing Access To 82% Of Global PE Consumption Growth, 80% Of Exports

By John Richardson

PERHAPS this week’s low-level trade talks between the US and China shouldn’t only be judged on the basis that they are low level, involving officials of mid-level seniority who are therefore not empowered to achieve major breakthroughs.…

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US PE Exports: Impact Of China Tariffs On Smaller Markets

By John Richardson

LET US assume for downside planning purposes that the Chinese 25% tariffs against all US high-density polyethylene (HDPE) exports and 93% of US linear-low density (LLDPE) imports remain in place for the rest of this year and …

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China tariffs: Quantifying The Impact On US Petchems And Energy

By John Richardson

PRESIDENT Trump believes he is winning the trade war with China because of the much greater strength of US stock markets versus their Chinese counterparts. At the start of last week, for example, the two major Chinese …

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China 25% Tariffs On US PE Imports Extended To All HDPE, Nearly All LLDPE

By John Richardson

CHINA has extended its 25% import tariffs on US polyethylene (PE) to include all grades of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) that it imported in 2017 and 93% of the grades of linear-low density PE (LLDPE) that it imported …

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Polyethylene: Damage From Trade War Should Not Be Underestimated

By John Richardson

THE argument that the US-China trade war will have a minimal impact on the global polyethylene (PE) business is based on two assumptions, both of which I will argue could easily prove to be wrong.

Firstly, some …

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China PP Imports To Halve By 2025 Or Turn Into Exports

By John Richardson

CHINA IS accelerating its drive towards at the very least much greater PP self-sufficiency by 2025.

There is also a credible second scenario where China becomes a significant exporter by that same year, most logically to the …

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