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Asian Chemical Connections

China: GDP And Forgetting What You Already Know

By John Richardson THE blog has a terrible confession to make: We sometimes get it very badly wrong. How’s that for modesty? A couple of months ago we got it very badly wrong when we kept waffling on and on, in post after post, about whether China would hit GDP growth of 3-4%, 5%, 6% […]

China Coal-To-Olefins: Water Not An Issue

By John Richardson CONVENTIONAL wisdom has it that the water issue stands in the way of the growth of the coal-to-olefins (CTO) industry in China. The process consumes a lot of water  – between 15-20 tonnes for every tonne of olefins produced – which compares with 0.80-2.17 tonnes of water for every tonne of oil […]

China Commodities Fraud: The Global Implications

By John Richardson An eerie calm has descended over financial and commodity markets with volatility at a record low. The calm is eerie because it reminds us of the build-up to September 2008. Back then, not one single mainstream economist saw the sub-prime-led collapse coming and at the moment, the same feels as if it […]

China Polyethylene Demand Up By 25%

By John Richardson WHEN something appears to be good to be true, it usually is. Back in 2009, China’s demand for polyethylene (PE) increased by more than 20% – way above the increase in GDP – because of just about the biggest injection of credit into an economy in history, as our top chart illustrates. […]

Malaysia: All That Glitters Is Not Gold

By John Richardson ANYONE who visits Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s capital city, might well come away with the impression that everything is well with the country. The hotels are heaving as are the restaurants,  bars and shopping centres. So are the stalls on Petaling Street where, remarkably, it is possible to buy a luxury, top-of-the range […]

The Three Essentials Of China Credit

By John Richardson There are three things you need to bear in mind about credit creation in China, which according to the government’s own data, are as follows: In 2007, $1 of additional credit added 83 cents to GDP. By 2013, $1 was only adding 17 cents. This year, each additional dollar of lending will only […]

Central Banks Risk Being Behind The Curve

By John Richardson BACK in 2003 the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) predicted that dangerous imbalances were building up in the global financial system. The BIS, a Brussels-based international organisation for central banks, was worried that the Fed and other central banks were compromising long term stability in favour of short-term growth. Sadly, policymakers didn’t […]

European Political Suicide Seems Unlikely

By John Richardson For once, we are not going to talking about demand but will instead focus only on supply. “In all scenarios, the US captures market share away from Europe,” the American Chemistry Council’s (ACC) chief economist, Kevin Swift, said in a presentation last week. As my colleague Nigel Davis, in another of excellent […]

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