By John Richardson PEOPLE who trade in oil, other commodities and equities don’t buy that many chemicals and polymers because, of course, relative to the US population as a whole, they number very few. Thus, the challenge for 2014, as President Obama talks about a “breakthrough year” for the US economy, is spreading the strength […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s Latest Credit Crunch: What It Says About 2014
By John Richardson CHINA continues to cross the river by feeling the stones and anyone in the chemicals industry who says that they have a clear idea of where this is going to end is probably being more than a little disingenuous. There will be a lot of experimentation as China tries to overhaul its […]
Western Demand Still Weaker
By John Richardson AS the euphoria over the Fed’s measured tapering echoes through global equity markets, many people at certain points on the continuum – which we described in detail earlier this week – will be happy. Perhaps for the next few quarters, stock markets will remain buoyant because of the measured tapering of bonds purchases and the prospect […]
China’s Silver Lining: Blue Collar Wage Increases
By John Richardson HOW useful a tool is GDP in measuring petrochemicals demand growth in China? This is a question that every research department in every petrochemicals company needs to ask itself. During the Supercycle era, Chinese demand growth was pretty much a proxy for strong consumption growth in the West. Because of ample availability […]
Global Growth Outlook: Sorting Out The Continuum
By John Richardson WHAT do you do for a living? Are you a speculator in equity markets or do you make things for a living? These, we think, are highly relevant questions as we head towards the New Year. It is a continuum, though, in the sense of this definition of the word: A continuous sequence […]
Oil Market Risks For 2014
By John Richardson PAUL Satchell, the UK-based chemicals analyst with glob investment bank Cannacord Genuity wrote in his December Volume Proxy* report, which was released earlier this month: “It has long been our opinion that real demand fundamentals in commodity chemicals have been so poor since mid-2010 that inventory cycles have become the prime determinant of […]
The US Growth Conundrum
By John Richardson WHERE is the growth in the US economy going to come from to consume the big increase in the country’s ethylene and derivatives production due to take place from 2017 onwards? This is a question that continues to trouble the blog when we study charts such as the one above. It is […]
China and India: When Over-Investment Is A Good Thing
By John Richardson WHEN is over-investment a good thing? This was another question the blog was left pondering after a good conversation with a Beijing-based training delegate during ICIS Training’s recent China Seminar in Bangkok. She made the point that China builds roads, bridges and railways, which ends up “seeding” or developing demand in less-developed […]
The WTO “Bali” Deal Versus ASEAN Priorities
By John Richardson WHY sacrifice national or regional growth for the sake of freer global trade? This is a question the blog has been asking itself since the breakthrough last week at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) talks in Bali. This follows our earlier thoughts on how regional trading blocs may become much more significant. […]
China: Building The Bear (Or Realistic?) Case For 2014
By John Richardson The above slide, compiled from Global Trade Information Services data by fellow blogger Paul Hodges, is further evidence of the tremendous year that polyethylene (PE) has enjoyed in China so far this year. We think that PE is a pretty good proxy for other polymers and chemicals and so parallels could well […]
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