By John Richardson IF the US Fed’s polices are working why is AP Moller Mearsk – the shipping company which is widely seen as a proxy for global trade – cutting costs and reducing capacity? Probably because as Henny Sender wrote in the Financial Times: “It is clear that the Fed’s quantitative easing is not […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Prepare For More Fragmented, Protected Markets
By John Richardson Last week, the blog gave a presentation at the ICIS Asian Polyolefins Conference in Jakarta during which we highlighted the anxiety over the impact of increased low cost ethylene and derivatives exports from the US. But only 3.9 million tonnes of ethylene and derivatives are forecast by ICIS Consulting to be surplus […]
China Polyester “Too Big To Fail”
By John Richardson HAVE some companies in the polyester chain in China worked themselves into a position where they are “too big to fail?” And might capacity additions carry on, despite Beijing’s attempts to rein-in further additions to already oversupplied industrial sectors such as the polyester chain? These were some of the questions the blog […]
Re-assembly Job No 2: China Local Govt Revenues
By John Richardson THERE are personal reasons why local government officials in China might effectively resist the boldest economic reform agenda since 1978. Career advancement is one such reason, as is making money on the side. “By building a large dam, road or giant housing complex [or a new chemicals plant], an official can boost […]
Australia: Nice Work If You Were Able To Get It
By John Richardson BACK in the late 1990s, the blog held a discussion with an Australian petrochemicals industry executive. He described his country’s approach to free trade, or rather the lack of it, as “to put it politely, naïve, and to put is less politely, plain stupid.” He was referring to how Australia had aggressively […]
China: No New “Demographic Dividend”
By John Richardson ANOTHER, on the surface, stunning announcement last Friday – along with promises of root and branch economic reforms – was China’s decision to relax its one-child policy. All of these announcements followed the conclusion of last week’s crucial Third Plenum. From now on, couples will be allowed to have two children if […]
Re-assembling China’s Incentive Systems
By John Richardson ON the surface, further details about decisions taken during the Third Plenum – which were released on Friday – were nothing short of stunning. They promise a “root of and branch” reform of China’s economy. But implementation will, of course, by the key. We worry that the whole incentive system will have […]
China’s November Plenum: The Verdict So Far
By John Richardson THE November Plenum is over and now the analysis has begun. Some commentators view the formal communiqué about the plenum – which was released by the government on Tuesday – with tremendous enthusiasm. Others, however, are disappointed, while a third group of commentators are sitting on the fence. This might not seem […]
The US Needs A Plenum
By John Richardson CHINA’S crucial November plenum has now finished and so far there are no details on policy decisions. All we have had is a brief communiqué, which includes key phrases such as “deepening reform” and “crossing the river by feeling the stones”. This latter phrase underlines our argument that reform will be trial […]
Bio-based Local Ethylene Plants A Good Alternative
By John Richardson THE proven approach for success in petrochemicals is, of course, to find cheap feedstocks somewhere and build a world-scale cracker complex. That “somewhere” doesn’t necessarily have to be close to the final customers in emerging markets. For example, the Middle East and more more recently the US can afford to ship large […]
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