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Asian Chemical Connections

It Is Not A Question Of If, But Rather When

By John Richardson IT is not a question if, but rather when Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang decide that enough is enough and get on with tackling China’s growing financial imbalances. That is if they don’t want the whole house of cards to eventually collapse, which we believe is not the case. These imbalances have […]

China PE Demand Increases Further

By John Richardson THE great polyethylene (PE) mystery hunt continues. As the chart above shows, China’s apparent PE demand (imports plus domestic production) grew by 14% in January-July 2013 compared with the same period in 2011, according to Global Trade Information Services and official government data. This compares with a 13% increase recorded for January-June […]

Analyse The Data And Listen To Li Keqiang

By John Richardson IT IS important to look at long-term trends in China rather than be misled by a few positive sets of data. This is not pessimism, just realism. Yesterday saw the release of very good August export data.  Exports were up by 7.2% from year earlier, and were 5.1% higher than in July […]

Come On Mr Abbott, Please

By John Richardson TONY Abbott, in his victory speech on Saturday following the Coalition victory in the Australian Federal Election, renewed his pledge to scrap the carbon tax, stop the boat people and bring the budget back into surplus. Come on Mr Abbott, please. The blog has to admit, in this time of nonsensical sound-bite politics, […]

Every Time You Dip Your Toe In The Water…

By John Richardson EVERY time you dip your toe in the water the political temperature in China can feel a little different. For instance, in this article in the New York Times, published on 19 July, the newspaper wrote: “Communist Party cadres have filled meeting halls around China to hear a sombre, secretive warning issued […]

China’s Balancing Act: Reforming Land Rights And Hukou

Xi Jinping   By John Richardson THE good health of China’s economy and the future of the Communist Party depend on giving farmers individual land-ownership rights and allowing equal rights for migrants in cities, an official from a leading Beijing-based government think tank told Bloomberg in this article. “Land and hukou reform is the cornerstone […]

Generic Strategies No Longer Good Enough

By John Richardson DURING the economic Supercycle life was easy for chemicals companies. Strong and constant demand growth was assured and so all they had to do was focus on building new, cost-effective capacity. Top-down strategy was generic – a one-size-fits-all approach. Even if chemicals companies got the timing of new capacities slightly wrong it […]

China Debt Dwarfs The Fed’s Quantitative Easing

YESTERDAY we highlighted how a crucial government meeting takes place in November in China. This could well outline the blueprint for economic reform over the next few years. A major challenge facing China’s new leaders is the unsustainable surge in debt since 2008 – a problem we have been highlighting for several years now.   […]

China: Realism Is Not The Same As Pessimism

By John Richardson A CRUCIAL meeting takes place in China in November – the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee. More commonly referred to as “the November plenum”, the outcomes of the meeting will help determine the economic success or failure of China over the long term. President Xi […]

Thailand: Build A Contingency Plan

Source: Petroleum Institute of Thailand   By John Richardson IT can be argued that Thailand is in a better state than fellow ASEAN members Indonesia and Malaysia. Government spending in Thailand relative to GDP is said to be lower than in both Indonesia and Malaysia. Compared with Malaysia, Thailand also has a larger working-age population, […]

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