Instead of demand for the nine polymers growing by 7m tonnes in 2022 under our base cases, my downsides see consumption falling by 6m tonnes.
Asian Chemical Connections
China panic over a downturn in H2 2021 is as overcooked the H1 boom narrative
By John Richardson THERE is a lot of very unhelpful noise out there about China which is making it very difficult for petrochemical producers and buyers to see the real picture. But the noise is of great benefit to petrochemical and financial traders as, of course, noise accompanied by volatility is how traders make their […]
The right analysis of China export data confirms moderate slowdown
By John Richardson STATISTICS, if you do not look at them in the right way, can be very misleading. This is the case with last week’s excitement about the growth in China’s June exports of manufactured goods. On a year-on-year basis, exports grew in dollar terms by 32.2% in June from a year earlier compared […]
As the drift towards a divided world continues, here are some climate change realities
Note that, as always, the views expressed here are personal. Thank you. By John Richardson Executive Summary The big Western energy companies – the International Oil Companies (IOCs) – are selling hydrocarbon assets as they strive to meet more aggressive emissions targets, some of which have been set by environmental activists. The assets are being […]
China styrene demand faces annual decline while imports could fall by 38%
By John Richardson SINCE FEBRUARY this year the ICIS petrochemical data has pointed to a significant slowdown in Chinese economic growth. Data on petrochemicals are always an excellent barometer to the health of any wider economy. The reason is that petrochemicals are used in nearly all manufacturing chains and in many service sectors. China’s slowdown […]
Boom in petrochemicals demand guaranteed but we must grow sustainably
By John Richardson ONE OF THE GREATEST achievements of the last 30 years has been the fall in the number of people living in extreme poverty. In 1999, 1.9bn of the world’s population were living on less than $1.90, the Word Bank’s definition of extreme poverty. Despite setbacks caused by the pandemic, this had […]
China petrochemicals overstocking likely substantial as Q1 slowdown risks increase
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart on the left – showing average month-on-month percentage increases in China’s polypropylene (PP) imports in 2009-2019 versus the pattern in 2020 – underlines my argument that the production and export-led recovery that China enjoyed last year was part of a government plan. You can see the same pattern in […]
Exporters of PP and SM to China seem to have options other than shutdowns, but not PX exporters
By John Richardson DIFFICULT choices lie ahead for exporters of polypropylene (PP), styrene monomer (SM) and paraxylene (PX) to China. From next year onwards, the country’s imports will start to decline and by 2023-2025 complete self-sufficiency may be reached in all these products. Just how significant this shift will be for global markets, we can […]
Vaccines, petrochemicals demand and a much more complex world
By John Richardson WE DIDN’T used to require expert knowledge of vaccines, epidemiology, political science and the impact of social media on human behaviour if we wanted to forecast petrochemicals demand, to name but a few of the many new disciplines that have now become essential. All we had to do was take IMF or […]
China’s policy dilemma: raising local demand while protecting exports
By John Richardson IN THIS Western-centric world, a huge amount of ink is split over the consequences of US presidential elections and this year’s the poll, which as always takes place in November, is no exception. The result will of course have huge global economic and geopolitical consequences. But I believe that the outcomes […]