As immigration declines, labour costs are set to rise. Companies could thus shut down, leave Britain or invest in more automation if they decide to stay in the UK By John Richardson THE BRITISH town of Slough has an unemployment rate of 1.4% compared with a nationwide average of 4.7%, with the town’s average weekly […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US Economy Returns To Weak Growth On Demographics
By John Richardson THE US is a deeply politically divided country to the point where the divisions are having a profound effect on consumer confidence. As the New York Times writes: Among Republicans, the University of Michigan consumer expectations index was at 61.1 in October, the kind of reading typically reported in the depths of a […]
Western Central Bank Finally Agrees That Ageing Populations Matter
By John Richardson FINALLY – for the first time – one of the major Western central banks is in agreement with what Paul Hodges and I have been arguing since we released our book in 2011 – Boom. Gloom & The New Normal: The retirement of the babyboomers is a critical issue. John Fernald of the San […]
Brexit, Other Uncertainties Undermine Seasonal Pricing Confidence
By John Richardson FOR many, many years, seasonality has been a great guide to short term pricing patterns in Asian chemicals and polymer markets. Take high-density polyethylene (HDPE) injection grade as just one example, which is used to make a wide range of finished goods, including pallets, crates and food containers: Over the last ten […]
US Auto Sales: Recovery? What Real Recovery?
By John Richardson IF you look at last year’s US auto sales in isolation, the plan to transform the fortunes of economically struggling Wilkes County in North Carolina makes every bit of sense. In 2015, 17.5m vehicles were sold in the US, higher than the previous all-time peak year for sales in 2000. Government and […]
The End Of The Economic Supercycle: What To Do Next
By John Richardson THE above infographic explains the end of the economic Supercycle: •During the 1980s/1990s, the BabyBoomers – the largest and wealthiest generation that the world has ever seen – entered the Wealth Creator generation (those aged 25 – 54), when income and spending peak •They powered the SuperCycle. •The world’s largest economy, the […]
Here Is Another “One Billion Consumers”: The Over 55s
By John Richardson FOR too many years people have shuffled from one board meeting to the next, and one conference to the next, in order to talk meaninglessly about “the rise of China’s middle classes” and “one billion Chinese consumers”. Why the talk has essentially been meaningless is because firstly, people bother to try and […]
How To Solve Deflation: People Need To Retire Later
By John Richardson AN economic theory is only of any use if it actually works in practice and if it becomes obvious it doesn’t work what is the first thing you should do? Well, of course, the answer is you scrap that theory and start again. Not, sadly, in the case of the Fed who, […]
The Price Of Oil: Another Huge Historical Shift
By John Richardson FIRST came the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 followed by the reunification of Germany and the integration of Eastern Europe in general into the Western way of running the world. Then came China’s rise following the Deng Xiaoping 1992 “Southern Tour” and China’s admission to the World Trade Organisation in 2001. […]
US Consumers Can No Longer Rescue The Global Economy
By John Richardson WE have gone beyond a major turning point in world history when many of the certainties we used to be able to depend on simply no longer apply. Just about everyone now accepts that the old certainties relating to China no longer apply. That’s the good news. But the bad news is […]
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