By John Richardson WHAT a week it’s been when, of course, politics has trumped everything else and has challenged the view of those who believe that demand will take care of itself. Demand did take care of itself during the Supercycle, but that is now over for good. China no longer has the comfort blanket of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Tackling The SOEs
“The state advances as the private sector retreats…” The table below shows the size of China state-owned enterprises versus some other corporate giants. Source of table: The Economist. ICBC is the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. By John Richardson In the second of our series of blog posts ahead of this week’s 18th […]
China GDP Growth 4-5% in 2013-2020
Canton Trade Fair. Source of picture: http://www.vatti-china.com/News/83.htm By John Richardson IT would be nice to believe that the improved mood at this week’s Canton Trade Fair represents a long-term turnaround in China’s economic direction. This reflects a 9.9% increase in overall exports in September, much higher than the 5.5% median estimate in a Bloomberg […]
China Exports, Rebalancing Scenarios
Source of chart: Morgan Stanley By John Richardson CHINA might soon raise export tax rebates, as it did during the 2008-2009 global economic crisis. Some chemicals and polymers exporters to China would welcome the increase in export tax rebates (this would make re-exports of finished goods from China more competitive). But on this occasion, […]
Uncertainties Over US Gas Pricing
By John Richardson NOBODY saw the shale gas technological breakthroughs coming and thus the revival of the US petrochemicals industry took everybody by surprise. Today the accepted wisdom is that the US industry will remain a license to print money for many years to come. But as we have discussed before, the substantial amount of […]
Mitt Romney Risks China Trade War
By John Richardson MITT Romney is playing a dangerous game with pre-election rhetoric that might end up tying him to a policy decision that results in a US-China trade war, warns Stephen Roach, the former head of Morgan Stanley Asia and senior fellow at Yale University, in this article. in yesterday’s Financial Times. The Republican presidential nominee has […]
US Targets China VAT Rebates
Mitt Romney would declare China a currency manipulator Source of picture: Wikimeda By John Richardson China’s practice of providing value-added tax (VAT) rebates for importers of raw materials who then re-export finished goods is the subject of a new US Department of Commerce ruling. And a leading international trade lawyer […]
US-China Trade Disputes Threat
By John Richardson CHINA’S 15.3 percent increase in exports in May, far greater than most analysts had expected, is being interpreted as a sign of the country’s enduring economic strength. This is certainly good news for China amidst all the other negative news. But to what extent is it good news for the US, the […]
US Euphoria
By John Richardson THE shale gas advantage, along with the revival of the US economy, made for a euphoric atmosphere at last week’s International Petrochemicals Conference (IPC)* in San Antonio, Texas. China was only a blip on the corner of the radar screen because the talk was so domestic-focused. The only doubts expressed were over […]
It’s Always Helpful To Have A Plan
By John Richardson THERE are four major reasons why the first three quarters of 2011 have been excellent for chemicals companies, which are: 1.) Strong co-product credits have supported what have been weak commodity-grade polyolefin markets since March of this year (higher-value grades, such as co-polymer grade polypropylene for auto applications, have been better) 2.) […]
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