By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart shows the major role that China has played in driving global inflation, deflation – and now inflation again – since 2008. There is a close link between the movements in China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) in the Eurozone, the US and the UK. The […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Peak Oil And The Aramco/SABIC Petchems Project
By John Richardson THERE is an important connection between this week’s announcement by Saudi Aramco and SABIC of an MoU for a direct oil-to-chemicals complex and the Tesla Semi electric truck, which is being trialled by DHL and other logistics companies. To fully understand this link, let’s first consider the wider context behind the Tesla truck […]
China And Xi Jinping: The Five Big Challenges You Must Understand
By John Richardson THE above slide, from my speech at this year’s Gulf Petrochemical Association Forum, is a summary of much of the analysis on this blog over the past 12 months. This is another of my print-out-and-keep guides. Please pin to your chemicals company boardroom wall as you plan your scenarios for China. In […]
China’s Polypropylene Market: The Right Questions You Simply Must Ask
By John Richardson On the surface, the above chart represents very good news for exporters of polypropylene (PP) to China. As you can see, our base case sees import volumes creeping up from around 3.9m tonnes in 2018 to 4.2m tonnes in 2025. But this chart should be merely a starting point for a much […]
China Govt Policy To Shape Petchems Demand, Pricing In 2018
By John Richardson NAPHTHA feedstock costs are on the way up, which is of course the result of higher crude prices. So far this year, the naphtha cost for Asian steam cracker operators has averaged $479/tonne CFR China. But our forecast for November 2017-March 2018 is $541/tonne CFR China. This might turn out be an […]
China’s Accelerating War On Air Pollution: Latest Implications For Petchems
By John Richardson CHINA has steadily increased the intensity of its war against pollution over the last three years – especially the war against pollution generated by burning coal. This has major implications for the petrochemicals industry, which we will detail later on this post. Firstly, though, here is a timeline of events over the […]
China’s Xi: Squaring Circle Of Poverty Alleviation, Environment
By John Richardson THE ONLY China that most foreigners have visited, including myself, is the southern and eastern seaboard provinces where all the talk is about booming poylolefins and other polymers demand on the rise in middle class consumption. So strong is middle class consumption growth via mobile internet sales that the multiples of polyethylene […]
China Continues Deleveraging With Reforms Set To Accelerate….
…global risks remain elevated and so beware of complacency By John Richardson THE conventional view is that China has stimulated its economy to perfection ahead of the important 19th National Party Congress which begins in Beijing on 18 October. The theory goes that President Xi Jinping has kept the lending spigot firmly open in order […]
China To Now Raise Ethylene Capacity By 84% As Self-Sufficiency Drive Accelerates
By John Richardson SINCE my last update on 18 September, our ICIS China team have discovered a further 2.4m tonnes/year of ethylene capacity being planned in China via the steam cracker process (see the updated table above, with the changes from September indicated in red). There will also of course be more propylene via steam […]
China Accelerates Chemicals Plant Relocations As Supply Disruptions Build
By John Richardson THE RELOCATION of all chemicals plants classified as producing toxic products from China’s big towns and cities to chemicals-industry parks is being speeded-up. Relocation work first began in 2014. But earlier this month, a new directive from the State Council stipulated that: All of the country’s small- to mid-sized chemicals plants that […]