YESTERDAY we highlighted how a crucial government meeting takes place in November in China. This could well outline the blueprint for economic reform over the next few years. A major challenge facing China’s new leaders is the unsustainable surge in debt since 2008 – a problem we have been highlighting for several years now. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China: Realism Is Not The Same As Pessimism
By John Richardson A CRUCIAL meeting takes place in China in November – the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee. More commonly referred to as “the November plenum”, the outcomes of the meeting will help determine the economic success or failure of China over the long term. President Xi […]
China’s “Mini-Stimulus” Package
By John Richardson The big question this morning for anybody concerned about China’s long-term economic future is whether its “mini-stimulus package” will do any good. Yesterday, Beijing announced that it would eliminate taxes on small businesses, reduce costs for exporters and line-up funds for the construction of railways. This followed Prime Minister Li Keqiang declaring […]
One In Three Chance Of 5% China GDP Growth
By John Richardson THERE is a one in three chance of China’s real GDP growth averaging 5% or less over four consecutive quarters before the end of 2014, warns Nomura, said Bloomberg in this article. And the bank added that its China Stress Index, which monitors the risk of a hard landing, recorded its highest […]
Beijing: China Deceleration On Track
Source of chart: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/ By John Richardson THERE has been a hugely important shift in the attitude of China’s central government. In the old days, when they set a target of say 12% national industrial production growth for a particular year, such targets were usually wildly exceeded. This was the result of local governments, […]
China’s Divided Authority
Source: The Economist By John Richardson ONE of the blog’s Indian friends said last week, as he worries about his country’s political failings: “I sometimes wish were more like China, where, when the Politburo says ‘do this’ it is done. “Here we, perhaps, have an excess of democracy. If we want to get a […]
China: 2013 Growth To Slow Again
By John Richardson A detailed study of some of China’s positive economic data for November adds a lot more weight to the point we made yesterday: The “recovery” is unlikely to last into 2013. November marked the first time in over a year that both the official China manufacturing PMI and the final HSBC/Markit Economics […]
Paying For China’s Infrastructure
By John Richardson NEW infrastructure projects in China (see above chart from Rio Tinto) might deliver a boost to chemicals and polymer demand growth in Q4 this year and into 2013. But doubts are being expressed about whether some of these projects can be funded, given the build-up of bad debts in China’s financial system […]
“The Worse Things Get…..”
Chart sourced from: http://www.financialsense.com/ By John Richardson “THE worse things get the better they are,” continues to be the mantra in financial and commodity markets these days. For example, China’s inflation slowed to 1.8 percent in July compared with 2.2 percent in June. This is likely to spur expectations of more economic stimulus. The […]
China’s Unreliable GDP Data
By John Richardson THE economic slowdown throughout Asia became more apparent last week with the release of disappointing data, prompting interest rate cuts in China, Vietnam and South Korea. China’s key polyethylene (PE) market responded as trading volumes fell and sentiment weakened for the week ending 13 July, according to ICIS. Market participants, however, expressed […]
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