By John Richardson THERE IS ONLY one slight problem with the argument that developing world demand is behind the boom in petrochemicals demand over the last 20 years: the data. Sorry to begin the year on a rather sarcastic note, but this is unfortunately a drum I feel I need to keep banging to support […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China polyethylene imports set to remain strong in 2021 despite big local capacity growth
By John Richardson IT WAS a tremendous year. China’s 2020 polyethylene (PE) demand growth over 2019 averaged 10% across the three grades. This comprised a 13% increase in demand for high-density PE (HDPE), a 2% decline in demand for low-density PE (LDPE) and a 13% rise in linear-low density PE (LLDPE) demand, according to my […]
China’s economy is not recovering say petrochemicals markets
By John Richardson IF YOU only read the financial press and follow the stock markets you can be entirely forgiven for thinking that China’s economy has turned around as a result of huge injection of economic stimulus. But anyone whose job it is to follow petrochemicals markets should know that the jury is still out […]
China, China And China: The Three Drivers Of Global Styrene
By John Richardson THE DATA on global polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) undermine the notion of booming emerging markets demand. In reality, it is only Chinese demand that has boomed and not the emerging markets as a whole. And when you look at all the commodity chemicals and polymers value chains, the headline data tells you […]
Oil Prices Falling Towards $35 On US Supply, China Demand
WTI continues its journey towards a possible $35/bbl by Q4 of this year on rising US shale-oil production and a slight slowdown in the Chinese economy with big implications for global economic growth. And $25/bbl or lower crude in 2018 seems perfectly possible on these same dynamics. By John Richardson THE US shale oil industry was never going to […]
Prepare For A Global Recession In 2017
By John Richardson EVEN if there is no global trade war the chemicals industry as it stands today points to the failure of the $27.7 trillion of stimulus that’s been pumped into the global economy since the Global Financial Crisis. Why does tracking the chemicals industry help us understand the wider economy? Because, of course, […]
This Is No Way To Run Companies In The Future
By John Richardson WHEN the history of 2015 is eventually written, there will no doubt be some petrochemicals industry executives who will say, “I simply didn’t see this coming”. This will to some extent be disingenuous as for share price reasons it is better to stick with the consensus view even if you hold private […]
China’s Debts: Close Your Eyes, Hope For The Best
By John Richardson LACK of transparency is fine when any economy is booming. Think of Indonesia pre-1998 before the fall of Soeharto. No foreign or local investor really cared that much about where the suitcases of money were going because the price of corruption was well worth paying. Similarly in the US before 2008, most […]
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