By John Richardson THE conventional way of measuring the health of an economy is, of course, to assume that the stronger the growth in GDP the better the outlook. But in China, rather than viewing charts such as the one above as bad news, they should be interpreted as a sign that all is good. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Indonesia’s Challenges
By John Richardson INDONESIA was the subject of much enthusiasm when the blog hosted a webinar on Monday on China Polyolefins Markets. We will provide a link to a recorded version of the event shortly. The reason for the enthusiasm over Indonesia is perhaps because China, and now quite likely India, no longer guarantee strong growth. […]
Taiwan Growth Underlines Long Term Shift
By John Richardson EVIDENCE that China is no longer acting as the growth engine of the world, because it is too busy dealing with internal adjustments, is mounting. For example, on Tuesday of this week Taiwan announced that its year-on-year Q1 2013 GDP growth had fallen to just 1.5%. This was less than half of […]
One In Three Chance Of 5% China GDP Growth
By John Richardson THERE is a one in three chance of China’s real GDP growth averaging 5% or less over four consecutive quarters before the end of 2014, warns Nomura, said Bloomberg in this article. And the bank added that its China Stress Index, which monitors the risk of a hard landing, recorded its highest […]
Sinopec And The Blog’s Favourite Triangle
By John Richardson ONE of Sinopec’s subsidiaries, Shanghai Petrochemical, has weighed-in to the debate over US shale gas by warning that cheap petrochemicals imports from the States could erode the whole of China’s competitiveness. “We can’t tell how severe the blow will be, but it will pose a serious challenge, and the entire industry will […]
Beijing: China Deceleration On Track
Source of chart: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/ By John Richardson THERE has been a hugely important shift in the attitude of China’s central government. In the old days, when they set a target of say 12% national industrial production growth for a particular year, such targets were usually wildly exceeded. This was the result of local governments, […]
China Economic Policies To Get Tougher
By John Richardson THERE will, of course, be bright spots in petrochemicals markets as a result of factors independent of China’s new economic direction. For example, as an aromatics trader points out, there are huge paraxylene (PX) capacity additions in Asia that will provide a great deal of support to reformer economics. In 2010-2013, he […]
China, Patronage And Innovation
By John Richardson CHINA has to improve innovation if it is to avoid the middle-income trap. Some people assume that success is a given because of China’s great achievement of lifting hundreds of millions of people out of absolute poverty over the last two decades. But rapid industrialisation and infrastructure spending, which were the methods of […]
China Labour Supply Threatens Productivity Growth
Chart compiled by the China Real Time Report blog. By John Richardson NOBODY should be surprised about what is happening in China’s petrochemicals markets, as the signs have been there for many months that economic rebalancing would have to accelerate. This could be marvellous news in the long term for domestic consumption growth, but […]
It Is Now Down To Seven Guys In A Room
Source of picture: China Daily By John Richardson The famous investor, Jim Chanos, warned three years years ago that the West places an inordinate amount of trust in “nine guys in a room” (i.e. China’s Politburo Standing Committee) getting it right. Since last year’s leadership transition that trust now needs to be placed in just […]
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