By John Richardson IN SCENARIO 3 in the above chart, China would import 16.8m tonnes of polyethylene (PE) in 2021. This would be down by 13% from the estimated total imports for this year – 18.9m tonnes – based on annualising the actual January-September import data. The January-October data should be available later this week. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China petrochemicals rebound provides major global demand boost
By John Richardson WOW yet again. China’s export-led economic recovery continues to support global petrochemicals demand growth. Our business looks set to enjoy a much better year in 2020 than nearly all us had imagined was possible back in Q1. Here I only look at mono-ethylene glycol (MEG) and paraxylene (PX). But watch this blog […]
China’s real GDP could have been negative in Q2: What this may mean for PP
By John Richardson CHINA’S official GDP growth of 3.2% for Q2, which was announced last week, may not reflect real levels of economic activity, according to Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, a non-profit research body. He goes as far as to say that the Chinese economy probably contracted […]
Polyethylene Pricing Separates From Fundamentals
By John Richardson Linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) pricing in China has become increasingly divorced from industry fundamentals as a result of the growing role of the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s futures contract, claimed a Singapore-based polyolefin trader late last week. And the contract is setting the physical market, resulting in Dalian performing a similar role that […]
“Trust in me, go to sleep,” – the objective of China’s Central Bank
Source of picture: www.forums.comicbookresources.com By John Richardson I loved the analogy in yesterday’s Lex column in the Financial Times, comparing the objectives of any central bank to those of Kaa, the python in Jungle Book (nice excuse for a picture to brighten up the blog). The serious point is that […]
Recycling Dip Boosts China By 8-10 Percentage Points
It can be a dirty business…. Source of picture: www.China-environmental-news-blogspot.com By John Richardson THE sharp drop in plastics recycling in China has added 8-10 percentage points to virgin polyolefin demand growth in 2009, estimates a major Asian producer. “It’s a much bigger than we had anticipated and we’re of course evaluating whether recycling […]
What’s China’s real consumption growth?
Source of picture: millermmccune.com How quickly is China shifting its economy away from exports towards stronger domestic consumption? The answer to this question is, of course, critical to the global chemicals industry. On the surface it looks good: Retail sales grew by 16.6% in the first half of 2009 and by a slightly more modest […]
The more you look at the data…..
Deep in the heart of the great wealth gap Source of picture: Blogmlive.com ….the more convincing seems to be the argument that financial and commodity markets have got way ahead of the recovery in the real economy. Take a recent Credit Suisse report, for instance. Its analysis of monthly apparent demand in China, up until […]
China petchem output up, textiles down
The Canton Trade Fair Source of picture: Blawg.lehman.com This interesting article from Bloomberg says that while petrochemical output in China rose in August, textile production actually contracted. We don’t as yet have any breakdown for specific petrochemicals. If the overall increase includes higher aromatics-to-synthetic fibres output then the gamble that the chain has taken on […]
Is Dalian setting the markets?
Make your own mind up about the role of the Dalian Commodity Exchange linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) futures contracts from the interviews below. The first quote is from Sinopec – from an ICIS news story. There then follows my interviews with a major Asian producer and a consultant based in Asia. […]
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