By John Richardson THE reasons cited for last week’s global sell-off in stock markets (see the above chart of the Nikkei up until Thursday last week) were concerns over volatility in the Japanesegovernment bond market and the economic slowdown in China. Some investors, however, believe that markets have just taken a pause for breath as a result of profit […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Everything Is Going To Plan
By John Richardson So far so good – everything is going to plan. The flash Markit/HSBC China Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May fell to 49.6, slipping under the 50-point level demarcating expansion from contraction for the first since October last year and sending Asian financial markets sharply lower. But, crucially, as Reuters pointed out in this article, […]
China Market Rally In Context
By John Richardson ETHYLENE spot prices rose by $20-50/tonne in Asia last week on the back of stronger derivatives pricing, including a $5-25/tonne increase in polyethylene (PE), according to ICIS. However, nobody is cracking open the champagne. As the chart above shows, despite a $51/tonne improvement in Northeast Asia’s variable cost integrated margins for […]
Get Behind China
By John Richardson THE blog is often accused of being pessimistic. We are not. We are just realistic. It was realistic last November to anticipate that China’s new leaders would be dedicated to major economic reform. In fact, this was clear even earlier than that – back in February 2012 when the World Bank produced […]
China Hints At Yuan Depreciation
By John Richardson LABOUR markets are tight in China and so on the surface there appears to be no great pressure on Beijing to attempt to export its way out of an unemployment crisis. But what happens if, as we suspect, real GDP growth has fallen to 4% or even lower? The government, despite its […]
Global Deflation
By John Richardson TEN trillion dollars doesn’t buy what it used to do, according to The Wall Street Journal. The reason is that despite central banks across the world aggressively expanding their balance sheets, there is no inflation. “My customers in China are worried about the opposite – global deflation because demand everywhere is so […]
China Petchems H2 Price Rally
By John Richardson CHINA’S petrochemical prices might rally in the second half of this year, along with local stock markets, in response to the delayed impact of the big surge in bank lending that took place in Q1. James Gruber, author of the Asia Confidential newsletter, argues that a mild H2 recovery is possible because: […]
China Compensation
By John Richardson A MAJOR Southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) producer has reduced its percentage of exports to China from 30-40% in 2012 to just 10% so far this year, a source with the producer told the blog on the sidelines of the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Taipei. This is further confirmation of the […]
In Search Of Smart Customers
By John Richardson JUST about every Asian cracker operator is losing money right now, according to a polyolefin industry source. And the above chart indicates that margins are wafer-thin in Northeast Asia because of the unexpected weakness in the China market, where polyethylene (PE) demand growth is forecast to either be flat or in negative […]
Taiwan Growth Underlines Long Term Shift
By John Richardson EVIDENCE that China is no longer acting as the growth engine of the world, because it is too busy dealing with internal adjustments, is mounting. For example, on Tuesday of this week Taiwan announced that its year-on-year Q1 2013 GDP growth had fallen to just 1.5%. This was less than half of […]
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